Sport Picks
Nelas vs Moreirense
Portugal
Taça de Portugal 2005/2006 
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-0, with Nelas advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
15%
46%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Moreirense
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Moreirense carry the better recent record into this one.
- 39% — that's where the model lands on Nelas taking it.
- Moreirense arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Nelas, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Nelas Clean Sheet 20%
Moreirense Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nelas | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 9 | 30 |
| Wins | 5 | 8 |
| Draws | 0 | 8 |
| Losses | 4 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.56 | 0.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.89 | 1.53 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.29 | 0.93 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 7, 2005 Taça de Portugal
Nelas vs Moreirense
1:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nelas 40 / 100
Moreirense 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nelas Moreirense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Nelas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Moreirense let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.
Attacking prowess: Nelas scored in 78% of their last 9 outings.
Games between these two average 1.00 goals.
Recent resilience: Nelas stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
- VS Moreirense
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0 Goals Conceded 1.38
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Nelas
(Home) 18 Oct
Gil Vicente
6 : 1 Nelas
13 Sept
Nelas
1 : 0 Sao Joao de Ver
30 Aug
Nelas
4 : 3 Anadia
06 Sept
Boavista Sao Mateus
2 : 1 Nelas
09 Dec
Leiria
2 : 0 Nelas
Page 1 of 2
13 Sept
Nelas
1 : 0 Sao Joao de Ver
30 Aug
Nelas
4 : 3 Anadia
18 Nov
Nelas
2 : 0 AD Valecambrense
23 Sept
Nelas
4 : 0 Vigor Mocidade
07 Oct
Nelas
1 : 0 Moreirense
Moreirense
(Away) 20 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 1 Moreirense
14 Sept
Moreirense
3 : 1 Maritimo
09 Sept
Moreirense
0 : 4 Benfica
04 Sept
FC Porto
2 : 1 Moreirense
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1 Moreirense
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 1 Moreirense
04 Sept
FC Porto
2 : 1 Moreirense
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1 Moreirense
16 Aug
Arouca
4 : 0 Moreirense
25 Jul
Gil Vicente
2 : 2 Moreirense
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
FC Porto -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Odivelas FC -
TBD -
TBD -
FC Marco -
AD Pontassolense -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Naval -
Vila Mea 2
Mondinense 0
Oliv. Bairro 0
SC Mirandela 1
AD Lousada 1
GD Joane 0
Pedras Rubras 1
Covilha 2
AD Portomosense 2
Silves FC 0
Riachense 1
FC Barreirense 2
Tirsense 4
Electrico FC 2
TBD -
Maritimo -
Academica -
TBD -
TBD -
Gil Vicente -
Atletico CP 2
Gondomar 0
Operario 1
Louletano 5
Braga -
TBD -
TBD -
Leiria -
BSAD -
TBD -
SC Praiense 0
Aves 2
Paredes 2
CD Portosantense 1
Moreirense 0
Nelas 1
UD Ovarense 2
Tondela 1
Futebol Clube da Maia 2
Lagoa 4
Vizela 3
Messinense 1
SC Vianense 1
Santa Clara 2
Varzim 3
FC Canedo 1
TBD -
Sporting CP -
Vitoria Guimaraes -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Camacha 4
Real SC 3
GD Milheiroense 1
Estoril 4
Aljustrelense 2
Sanjoanense 1
GD Ponterrolense 1
Olhanense 2
Uniao Lamas 1
Beira Mar 0
Esmoriz 1
Oliveirense 2
Nacional -
TBD -
Freamunde 0
Imortal 1
CF Canical 2
Beneditense 0
SC Lusitania 1
Fatima 2
GD Tourizense 1
Dragoes Sandinenses 0
TBD -
Pacos Ferreira -
Leixoes 2
SC Angrense 1
TBD -
Benfica -
Boavista 3
Oeiras 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Maria de Fonte 0
Abrantes 3
FC Souropires 2
Aliados Lordelo 1
SB Castelo Branco 1
Portimonense 2
CU Micaelense 1
FC Madalena 0
TBD -
Estrela da Amadora -
FC Lixa 3
Trofense 1
TBD -
Penafiel -
Rio Ave -
TBD -
GD Uniao Torcatense 1
Ribeirao 2
Pinhalnovense 2
Chaves 1
Monsanto 1
Feirense 3
AD Fafe 3
Social Lamas 0
TBD -
Vitoria Setubal -
1/32-finals
FC Porto -
TBD -
Odivelas FC 4
FC Marco 6
AD Pontassolense -
TBD -
TBD -
Naval -
Vila Mea 2
SC Mirandela 1
AD Lousada 0
Covilha 2
AD Portomosense 2
FC Barreirense 1
Tirsense 0
Maritimo 2
Academica 3
Gil Vicente 2
Atletico CP 0
Louletano 1
Braga 1
Leiria 0
BSAD 0
Aves 1
Paredes 4
Nelas 0
UD Ovarense 0
Lagoa 1
Vizela 3
Santa Clara 1
Varzim 0
Sporting CP 2
Vitoria Guimaraes -
TBD -
Camacha 0
Estoril 1
Aljustrelense 3
Olhanense 0
Uniao Lamas 0
Oliveirense 2
Nacional 2
Imortal 1
CF Canical 0
Fatima 1
GD Tourizense 1
Pacos Ferreira 0
Leixoes 1
Benfica 2
Boavista -
TBD -
TBD -
Abrantes -
FC Souropires 1
Portimonense 0
CU Micaelense 0
Estrela da Amadora 2
FC Lixa 4
Penafiel 0
Rio Ave 0
Ribeirao 1
Pinhalnovense 2
Feirense 1
AD Fafe 0
Vitoria Setubal 1
1/16-finals
FC Porto 1
FC Marco 0
AD Pontassolense 0
Naval 1
Vila Mea 2
Covilha 1
AD Portomosense 0
Maritimo 2
Academica 1
Louletano 0
Braga 1
Aves 2
Paredes 3
Lagoa 1
Vizela 1
Sporting CP 2
Vitoria Guimaraes 4
Estoril 0
Aljustrelense 0
Oliveirense 1
Nacional 2
Fatima 0
GD Tourizense 0
Benfica 2
Boavista 3
Abrantes 2
FC Souropires 1
Estrela da Amadora 3
FC Lixa 1
Ribeirao 0
Pinhalnovense 0
Vitoria Setubal 1
1/8-finals
FC Porto 2
Naval 1
Vila Mea 0
Maritimo 3
Academica 2
Aves 1
Paredes 1
Sporting CP 2
Vitoria Guimaraes 2
Oliveirense 0
Nacional 0
Benfica 1
Boavista 1
Estrela da Amadora 0
FC Lixa 0
Vitoria Setubal 2
Quarter-finals
FC Porto 2
Maritimo 1
Academica 0
Sporting CP 2
Vitoria Guimaraes 1
Benfica 0
Boavista 1
Vitoria Setubal 2
Semi-finals
FC Porto 1
Sporting CP 0
Vitoria Guimaraes 0
Vitoria Setubal 1
Final
FC Porto 1
Vitoria Setubal 0
