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Nelson vs Waitakere City

New Zealand New Zealand

Football Championship 2000
Nelson Logo

Nelson

3 - 2
FT
Waitakere City Logo

Waitakere City

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Football Championship 2000 game between Nelson and Waitakere City finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nelson.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Nelson
30%
Draws
42%
Waitakere City
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Waitakere City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Waitakere City carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Waitakere City's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81%
Nelson Clean Sheet 20%
Waitakere City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nelson Waitakere City
Matches Played 18 32
Wins 6 9
Draws 6 3
Losses 6 20
Goals Scored 1.78 1.81
Goals Conceded 2.06 2.16
Expected Goals (xG) 1.79 1.11
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 16, 2000 Football Championship
Waitakere City vs Nelson
2:2
Apr 30, 2000 Football Championship
Nelson vs Waitakere City
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nelson 20 / 100
Waitakere City 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nelson Waitakere City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Waitakere City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nelson scored in 83% of their last 18 games.

Waitakere City's defensive record shows goals conceded in 94% of 32 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.50 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Nelson remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Waitakere City
0 Goals Scored 1.13
0 Goals Conceded 2.38
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Nelson

(Home)
13 Aug
Nelson
3 : 3
Napier City
06 Aug
Dunedin
1 : 1
Nelson
23 Jul
Nelson
4 : 3
Metro
16 Jul
Waitakere City
2 : 2
Nelson
09 Jul
Nelson
0 : 2
Manawatu
Page 1 of 4

Waitakere City

(Away)
06 Jul
Waitakere City
1 : 3
Melville
11 Sept
Birkenhead
3 : 2
Waitakere City
28 Aug
Waitakere City
6 : 1
Three Kings
06 Aug
Waitakere City
3 : 1
Caversham
16 Jul
Waitakere City
3 : 1
Waitemata FC
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 University Wellington 18 11 4 3 35:22 37
2 Napier City 18 9 4 5 37:20 31
3 Dunedin 18 8 3 7 32:26 27
4 Manawatu 18 8 3 7 31:28 27
5 Waitakere City 18 7 3 8 37:34 24
6 Nelson 18 6 6 6 32:37 24
7 Central United 18 7 2 9 29:28 23
8 Miramar 18 6 5 7 28:33 23
9 Christchurch 18 4 6 8 23:35 18
10 Metro 18 5 2 11 23:44 17
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