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Nepal Army vs Sri Lanka Police

Asia Asia

AFC Cup 2021
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Asante E.
41' Event
Tamang S.
43' Event
Shrestha N.

AI Match Summary

Nepal Army play Sri Lanka Police in the AFC Cup 2021. It looks like a close match. Recently, Nepal Army averaged 0.88 goals scored and 2 conceded. Sri Lanka Police averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. In past meetings, Nepal Army won 1, Sri Lanka Police won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 7, 2021 ended 5:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Nepal Army and 1.75 for Sri Lanka Police. This points to a Nepal Army double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Nepal Army
17%
Draws
13%
Sri Lanka Police
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Nepal Army

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Sri Lanka Police has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Nepal Army.
  • Model forecasts a 70% win probability edge for Nepal Army.
  • Cup tournament structure in AFC Cup 2021 increases high-stakes performance focus.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Nepal Army Clean Sheet 12%
Sri Lanka Police Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nepal Army Sri Lanka Police
Matches Played 11 26
Wins 2 6
Draws 2 3
Losses 7 17
Goals Scored 0.88 1.5
Goals Conceded 2 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 7, 2021 AFC Cup
Nepal Army vs Sri Lanka Police
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nepal Army Compare

Top Goalscorer Shrestha N.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Tamang S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Sri Lanka Police Compare

Top Goalscorer Asante E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nepal Army 65 / 100
Sri Lanka Police 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nepal Army Sri Lanka Police

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NEP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nepal Army scored in 55% of their last 11 games.

Sri Lanka Police let in goals in 85% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 6.00 goals.

Nepal Army went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Sri Lanka Police lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nepal Army VS Sri Lanka Police
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Bengaluru FC-
TBD-
Nepal Army5
Sri Lanka Police1
Abahani Limited Dhaka-
TBD-
Club Eagles2
Thimphu City0
Persipura Jayapura-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Visakha-
TBD-
TBD-
Lalenok-
Hantharwady United-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Chanthabouly-
TBD-
TBD-
Kasuka-
Shabab Al Amari-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Al Kuwait-
Semi-finals
Bengaluru FC5
Nepal Army0
Abahani Limited Dhaka-
Club Eagles-
Persipura Jayapura-
TBD-
Visakha-
Lalenok-
Hantharwady United-
TBD-
Chanthabouly-
Kasuka-
Shabab Al Amari-
TBD-
TBD-
Al Kuwait-
Final
Bengaluru FC1
Club Eagles0
Persipura Jayapura-
TBD-
Hantharwady United-
TBD-
Shabab Al Amari-
Al Kuwait-