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Neptunas vs Dainava Alytus - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Lithuania Lithuania

I Lyga
Sat, Nov 7, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Neptunas host Dainava Alytus in the I Lyga. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Dainava Alytus have shipped 1.06 goals a game lately, while Neptunas have conceded 1.28 and scored 1.14. Past meetings favor Dainava Alytus slightly — 1-2-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jun 27, 2026, ending 1:0. The numbers (1.13 xG vs 1.13) point toward Dainava Alytus. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Neptunas
15%
Draws
59%
Dainava Alytus
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Dainava Alytus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Dainava Alytus lately — more wins on the board than Neptunas.
  • Win probability leans Dainava Alytus's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Dainava Alytus have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Neptunas Clean Sheet 20%
Dainava Alytus Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Neptunas Dainava Alytus
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 14 15
Draws 2 8
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.14 1.66
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 27, 2026 I Lyga
Dainava Alytus vs Neptunas
1:0
Sep 2, 2022 I Lyga
Dainava Alytus vs Neptunas
3:1
Apr 29, 2022 I Lyga
Neptunas vs Dainava Alytus
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Neptunas 28 / 100
Dainava Alytus 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Neptunas Dainava Alytus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dainava Alytus Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Neptunas's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.67 goals per match.

Dainava Alytus's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 32 matches.

Solid form: Neptunas remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Neptunas VS Dainava Alytus
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Neptunas

(Home)
24 Oct
Neptunas
0 : 2
Ekranas
16 Oct
BE1 NFA
2 : 0
Neptunas
10 Oct
Neptunas
0 : 1
Hegelmann Litauen 2
19 Sept
FK Minija
2 : 1
Neptunas
11 Sept
Neptunas
2 : 0
Jonava
Page 1 of 6

Dainava Alytus

(Away)
25 Oct
Dainava Alytus
0 : 1
FK Kauno Zalgiris 2
16 Oct
Ekranas
1 : 3
Dainava Alytus
09 Oct
BE1 NFA
2 : 2
Dainava Alytus
02 Oct
Garliava
2 : 1
Dainava Alytus
18 Sept
Hegelmann Litauen 2
0 : 1
Dainava Alytus
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FK Babrungas 28 22 4 2 52:13 70
2 FK Minija 27 22 1 4 71:18 67
3 BE1 NFA 27 18 3 6 50:27 57
4 Zalgiris 2 28 15 4 9 44:36 49
5 BFA Vilnius 28 14 4 10 42:41 46
6 Neptunas 28 14 2 12 33:35 44
7 Dainava Alytus 28 12 8 8 40:29 44
8 Tauras Taurage 27 13 5 9 48:37 44
9 FK Atmosfera 27 10 7 10 43:35 37
10 Garliava 28 9 5 14 34:32 32
11 Jonava 28 8 6 14 31:38 30
12 Transinvest 2 28 8 4 16 35:61 28
13 FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 28 9 1 18 27:45 28
14 Hegelmann Litauen 2 28 7 2 19 31:67 23
15 Ekranas 28 5 3 20 29:62 18
16 Siauliai 2 28 4 5 19 31:65 17
Promotion - TOPLYGA 2027 (Main)
Promotion - TOPLYGA (Relegation)
Relegation - I Lyga (Relegation)