Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Neptunas vs Jonava

Lithuania Lithuania

I Lyga
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Ajayi S. B.
51' Event
Zubauskas D.

AI Match Summary

Neptunas in this I Lyga matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Neptunas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Neptunas
15%
Draws
34%
Jonava
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Neptunas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Neptunas lately — more wins on the board than Jonava.
  • Neptunas are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular I Lyga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Neptunas here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Neptunas Clean Sheet 20%
Jonava Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Neptunas Jonava
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 17 7
Draws 3 7
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.29 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2026 I Lyga
Neptunas vs Jonava
2:0
May 8, 2026 I Lyga
Jonava vs Neptunas
0:1
Aug 30, 2025 I Lyga
Jonava vs Neptunas
0:2
May 3, 2025 I Lyga
Neptunas vs Jonava
0:2
Nov 8, 2023 I Lyga
Jonava vs Neptunas
2:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Neptunas Compare

Top Goalscorer Ajayi S. B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zubauskas D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Jonava Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Neptunas 42 / 100
Jonava 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Neptunas Jonava

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Neptunas scored in 68% of their last 31 outings.

Jonava has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Jonava has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Neptunas VS Jonava
1.25 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Neptunas

(Home)
11 Sept
Neptunas
2 : 0
Jonava
07 Sept
Zalgiris 2
1 : 0
Neptunas
29 Aug
Neptunas
3 : 1
FK Atmosfera
22 Aug
BFA Vilnius
2 : 0
Neptunas
15 Aug
Neptunas
0 : 4
FK Babrungas
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Jonava

(Away)
11 Sept
Neptunas
2 : 0
Jonava
04 Sept
Jonava
0 : 0
Dainava Alytus
29 Aug
Transinvest 2
1 : 2
Jonava
21 Aug
Jonava
0 : 1
Siauliai 2
14 Aug
FK Kauno Zalgiris 2
2 : 1
Jonava
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FK Minija 23 20 1 2 61:12 61
2 FK Babrungas 24 18 4 2 42:11 58
3 Neptunas 24 14 2 8 32:28 44
4 BE1 NFA 22 14 2 6 39:24 44
5 Zalgiris 2 24 13 4 7 38:31 43
6 BFA Vilnius 24 13 3 8 38:34 42
7 Tauras Taurage 24 12 4 8 40:29 40
8 Dainava Alytus 23 10 7 6 33:23 37
9 FK Atmosfera 23 8 5 10 36:32 29
10 Jonava 24 7 6 11 26:30 27
11 Hegelmann Litauen 2 24 7 1 16 30:55 22
12 Garliava 23 6 4 13 25:27 22
13 Transinvest 2 24 6 3 15 28:56 21
14 FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 23 6 1 16 20:36 19
15 Ekranas 24 4 2 18 23:52 14
16 Siauliai 2 23 3 5 15 21:52 14
Promotion - TOPLYGA 2027 (Main)
Promotion - TOPLYGA (Relegation)
Relegation - I Lyga (Relegation)