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Nesebar vs Beroe - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Vtora liga Gradski stadion, Nesebar
Nesebar Logo

Nesebar

4 - 3
FT
Beroe Logo

Beroe

Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Parashkevov K.
26'
Mitev I.
29' Event
Simeonov M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Nesebar in this Vtora liga matchup, with the score ending 4-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nesebar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Nesebar
15%
Draws
51%
Beroe
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Beroe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Nesebar have won more games recently than Beroe.
  • 34% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Nesebar Clean Sheet 68%
Beroe Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nesebar Beroe
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 11
Draws 5 7
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 2.55 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Vtora liga
Nesebar vs Beroe
4:3
Apr 18, 2009 B PFG East
Nesebar vs Beroe
1:3
Sep 20, 2008 B PFG East
Beroe vs Nesebar
1:0
Apr 9, 2005 efbet League
Beroe vs Nesebar
0:0
Sep 25, 2004 efbet League
Nesebar vs Beroe
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nesebar Compare

Top Goalscorer Parashkevov K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Simeonov M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Beroe Compare

Top Goalscorer Dinev Z.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Ferrer I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nesebar 41 / 100
Beroe 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nesebar Beroe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nesebar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nesebar's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Beroe let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Beroe lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nesebar VS Beroe
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Nesebar

(Home)
31 Oct
Nesebar
1 : 2
Chernomorets 1919
23 Oct
Hebar
2 : 1
Nesebar
18 Oct
Nesebar
0 : 2
CSKA Sofia
10 Oct
Nesebar
0 : 0
CSKA Sofia II
04 Oct
Rodopa Smolyan
1 : 3
Nesebar
Page 1 of 6

Beroe

(Away)
30 Oct
Gorna
2 : 0
Beroe
23 Oct
Beroe
3 : 1
Rilski Sportist
17 Oct
Beroe
0 : 3
Ludogorets
10 Oct
Marek
3 : 2
Beroe
04 Oct
Minyor Pernik
1 : 2
Beroe
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CSKA Sofia II 14 8 4 2 29:13 28
2 Chernomorets 1919 14 8 4 2 24:10 28
3 Vihren 14 7 5 2 26:13 26
4 Gorna 14 6 5 3 13:10 23
5 Yantra Gabrovo 14 7 2 5 19:14 23
6 Fratria 13 6 4 3 18:12 22
7 Beroe 14 6 3 5 21:18 21
8 Spartak Pleven 14 6 2 6 16:25 20
9 Hebar 14 6 2 6 29:24 20
10 Rilski Sportist 14 5 5 4 15:13 20
11 Etar 13 6 2 5 22:21 20
12 Ludogorets II 13 5 4 4 18:14 19
13 Marek 14 5 3 6 16:18 18
14 Nesebar 14 5 3 6 22:21 18
15 Montana 14 4 2 8 18:29 14
16 Svoge 14 2 6 6 10:15 12
17 Dobrudzha 13 2 3 8 13:26 9
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 14 0 1 13 5:38 1
Promotion - efbet League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - efbet League (Relegation)
Relegation - Vtora liga (Relegation)