Sport Picks

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Nesebar vs Beroe

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Vtora liga Gradski stadion, Nesebar
Sun, Sep 20, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nesebar host Beroe in the Vtora liga. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Recent numbers: Nesebar at 2.93 goals for, 0.89 against; Beroe at 1.03 for, 1.1 against. Past meetings favor Nesebar slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 18, 2009, ending 1:3. The numbers (1.31 xG vs 1.25) point toward Nesebar. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Under 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Nesebar
35%
Draws
31%
Beroe
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Nesebar have won more games recently than Beroe.
  • Nesebar are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Nesebar Clean Sheet 68%
Beroe Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nesebar Beroe
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 18 9
Draws 6 9
Losses 4 11
Goals Scored 2.93 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.89 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2009 B PFG East
Nesebar vs Beroe
1:3
Sep 20, 2008 B PFG East
Beroe vs Nesebar
1:0
Apr 9, 2005 efbet League
Beroe vs Nesebar
0:0
Sep 25, 2004 efbet League
Nesebar vs Beroe
2:1
Feb 21, 2004 Vtora liga
Nesebar vs Beroe
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nesebar 59 / 100
Beroe 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nesebar Beroe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nesebar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nesebar's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Nesebar has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Beroe let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Nesebar VS Beroe
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Nesebar

(Home)
06 Sept
Nesebar
2 : 1
Rilski Sportist
02 Sept
Marek
1 : 0
Nesebar
29 Aug
Nesebar
1 : 1
Yantra Gabrovo
23 Aug
Nesebar
7 : 0
Pirin Blagoevgrad
16 Aug
Svoge
0 : 1
Nesebar
Page 1 of 6

Beroe

(Away)
13 Sept
Beroe
1 : 0
Svoge
06 Sept
Dobrudzha
2 : 2
Beroe
03 Sept
Beroe
0 : 0
Montana
29 Aug
Etar
2 : 2
Beroe
25 Aug
Beroe
3 : 0
Spartak Pleven
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vihren 9 6 3 0 21:8 21
2 CSKA Sofia II 9 5 2 2 19:8 17
3 Yantra Gabrovo 9 5 1 3 12:9 16
4 Fratria 8 4 3 1 11:6 15
5 Chernomorets 1919 9 4 3 2 12:6 15
6 Beroe 9 4 3 2 12:8 15
7 Etar 9 4 2 3 15:15 14
8 Marek 9 4 1 4 10:9 13
9 Nesebar 8 4 1 3 15:11 13
10 Rilski Sportist 9 3 3 3 10:9 12
11 Ludogorets II 8 3 2 3 8:8 11
12 Montana 9 3 2 4 13:16 11
13 Hebar 9 3 2 4 18:17 11
14 Gorna 8 3 2 3 7:9 11
15 Spartak Pleven 9 3 1 5 10:19 10
16 Svoge 9 1 4 4 4:7 7
17 Dobrudzha 9 1 3 5 9:14 6
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 9 0 0 9 3:30 0
Promotion - efbet League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - efbet League (Relegation)
Relegation - Vtora liga (Relegation)