Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nesebar vs Etar

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Vtora liga Gradski stadion, Nesebar
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Tsanev T.
21' Event
Kolev I.
36' Event
Ivanov G.

AI Match Summary

Etar in this Vtora liga matchup, with the score ending 1-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Etar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Nesebar
30%
Draws
23%
Etar
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Nesebar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Nesebar lately — more wins on the board than Etar.
  • Nesebar are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Vtora liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Etar have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Nesebar Clean Sheet 10%
Etar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nesebar Etar
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 19 13
Draws 7 5
Losses 4 9
Goals Scored 2.83 1.89
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.81
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Vtora liga
Nesebar vs Etar
1:5
May 11, 2025 Vtora liga
Nesebar vs Etar
0:2
Feb 1, 2025 Club Friendly
Nesebar vs Etar
1:2
Nov 16, 2024 Vtora liga
Etar vs Nesebar
3:0
Jun 29, 2024 Club Friendly
Etar vs Nesebar
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nesebar Compare

Top Goalscorer Kolev I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Etar Compare

Top Goalscorer Ushagelov T.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Tsanev T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nesebar 83 / 100
Etar 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nesebar Etar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nesebar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nesebar scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Etar conceded in 78% of 27 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Nesebar has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Nesebar VS Etar
1.88 Goals Scored 2.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Nesebar

(Home)
15 Sept
Gorna
1 : 1
Nesebar
06 Sept
Nesebar
2 : 1
Rilski Sportist
02 Sept
Marek
1 : 0
Nesebar
29 Aug
Nesebar
1 : 1
Yantra Gabrovo
23 Aug
Nesebar
7 : 0
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Page 1 of 6

Etar

(Away)
14 Sept
Hebar
4 : 1
Etar
06 Sept
Etar
1 : 0
CSKA Sofia II
03 Sept
Vihren
4 : 1
Etar
29 Aug
Etar
2 : 2
Beroe
21 Aug
Gorna
2 : 1
Etar
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vihren 9 6 3 0 21:8 21
2 CSKA Sofia II 9 5 2 2 19:8 17
3 Fratria 9 4 4 1 12:7 16
4 Yantra Gabrovo 9 5 1 3 12:9 16
5 Chernomorets 1919 9 4 3 2 12:6 15
6 Beroe 9 4 3 2 12:8 15
7 Etar 9 4 2 3 15:15 14
8 Nesebar 9 4 2 3 16:12 14
9 Marek 9 4 1 4 10:9 13
10 Ludogorets II 9 3 3 3 9:9 12
11 Rilski Sportist 9 3 3 3 10:9 12
12 Gorna 9 3 3 3 8:10 12
13 Hebar 9 3 2 4 18:17 11
14 Montana 9 3 2 4 13:16 11
15 Spartak Pleven 9 3 1 5 10:19 10
16 Svoge 9 1 4 4 4:7 7
17 Dobrudzha 9 1 3 5 9:14 6
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 9 0 0 9 3:30 0
Promotion - efbet League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - efbet League (Relegation)
Relegation - Vtora liga (Relegation)