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Nesebar vs Sliven

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - South-East 2023/2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nesebar in this Third League - South-East 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nesebar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Nesebar
15%
Draws
26%
Sliven
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nesebar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Nesebar lately — more wins on the board than Sliven.
  • Nesebar are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Nesebar have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Nesebar Clean Sheet 20%
Sliven Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nesebar Sliven
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 20 9
Draws 6 5
Losses 5 16
Goals Scored 2.94 1.47
Goals Conceded 1 2.27
Expected Goals (xG) 2.60 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 3, 2024 Third League - South-East
Nesebar vs Sliven
3:1
Jan 24, 2024 Club Friendly
Nesebar vs Sliven
7:0
Sep 23, 2023 Third League - South-East
Sliven vs Nesebar
1:6
Apr 13, 2023 Third League - South-East
Sliven vs Nesebar
1:2
Oct 4, 2022 Third League - South-East
Nesebar vs Sliven
5:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nesebar 85 / 100
Sliven 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nesebar Sliven

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nesebar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nesebar scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

These sides typically produce 5.60 goals when they meet.

Sliven let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Nesebar stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nesebar VS -
4 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
75% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Nesebar

(Home)
27 Sept
Vihren
2 : 0
Nesebar
20 Sept
Nesebar
4 : 3
Beroe
15 Sept
Gorna
1 : 1
Nesebar
06 Sept
Nesebar
2 : 1
Rilski Sportist
02 Sept
Marek
1 : 0
Nesebar
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Sliven

(Away)
27 Jan
Beroe
13 : 0
Sliven
25 Jan
Chernomorets 1919
5 : 3
Sliven
17 Jul
Sozopol
4 : 2
Sliven
01 Jun
Sekirovo Rakovski
2 : 0
Sliven
25 May
Sliven
5 : 2
Levski Karlovo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nesebar 38 29 8 1 121:39 95
2 OFC Haskovo 38 30 3 5 97:26 93
3 Spartak Plovdiv 38 29 6 3 122:22 93
4 Gigant Saedinenie 38 21 8 9 81:43 71
5 Zagorets 38 21 6 11 79:42 69
6 Dimitrovgrad 38 19 10 9 60:40 67
7 Botev II 38 18 7 13 84:55 61
8 Atletik Kuklen 38 18 4 16 60:71 58
9 Rozova Dolina 38 17 5 16 60:50 56
10 Rodopa Smolyan 38 15 6 17 64:63 51
11 Asenovets 38 14 6 18 59:73 48
12 Lok. Plovdiv II 38 14 5 19 65:59 47
13 Sozopol 38 12 10 16 57:53 46
14 Sekirovo Rakovski 38 11 7 20 59:75 40
15 Levski Karlovo 38 11 5 22 56:91 38
16 Yambol 1915 38 9 10 19 49:82 37
17 Karnobat 38 11 1 26 46:106 34
18 Sliven 38 8 6 24 42:127 30
19 Sokol Markovo 38 8 3 27 36:98 27
20 Beroe II 38 6 2 30 26:108 20
Promotion - Vtora liga 2024/2025 (Main)