Sport Picks
Nesebar vs Spartak Plovdiv Prediction & H2H Stats
Bulgaria
Third League - South-East 2025/2026 Gradski stadion, Nesebar 
AI Match Summary
Nesebar in this Third League - South-East 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 6-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nesebar.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
15%
54%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Spartak Plovdiv
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Nesebar have won more games recently than Spartak Plovdiv.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- Regular Third League - South-East 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Nesebar Clean Sheet 16%
Spartak Plovdiv Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nesebar | Spartak Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 27 |
| Wins | 18 | 16 |
| Draws | 6 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 2.79 | 2.19 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.03 | 1.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 17, 2026 Third League - South-East
Nesebar vs Spartak Plovdiv
6:1
Nov 15, 2025 Third League - South-East
Spartak Plovdiv vs Nesebar
0:0
Apr 20, 2024 Third League - South-East
Nesebar vs Spartak Plovdiv
3:2
Oct 11, 2023 Third League - South-East
Spartak Plovdiv vs Nesebar
1:1
Feb 18, 2023 Third League - South-East
Nesebar vs Spartak Plovdiv
2:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nesebar 31 / 100
Spartak Plovdiv 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nesebar Spartak Plovdiv
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Nesebar scored in 83% of their last 29 games.
Games between these two average 3.20 goals.
Spartak Plovdiv has conceded goals in 78% of their last 27 outings.
Recent resilience: Nesebar stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Nesebar VS Spartak Plovdiv
2.25 Goals Scored 2
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Nesebar
(Home) 27 Sept
Vihren
2 : 0 Nesebar
20 Sept
Nesebar
4 : 3 Beroe
15 Sept
Gorna
1 : 1 Nesebar
06 Sept
Nesebar
2 : 1 Rilski Sportist
02 Sept
Marek
1 : 0 Nesebar
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Nesebar
4 : 3 Beroe
06 Sept
Nesebar
2 : 1 Rilski Sportist
29 Aug
Nesebar
1 : 1 Yantra Gabrovo
23 Aug
Nesebar
7 : 0 Pirin Blagoevgrad
10 Aug
Nesebar
2 : 0 Dobrudzha
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Spartak Plovdiv
(Away) 26 Sept
Spartak Plovdiv
2 : 0 Rodopa Smolyan
19 Sept
Spartak Plovdiv
1 : 4 Gigant Saedinenie
12 Sept
Maritsa Plovdiv
0 : 2 Spartak Plovdiv
05 Sept
Spartak Plovdiv
2 : 0 Rozova Dolina
29 Aug
OFC Haskovo
1 : 2 Spartak Plovdiv
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Maritsa Plovdiv
0 : 2 Spartak Plovdiv
29 Aug
OFC Haskovo
1 : 2 Spartak Plovdiv
15 Aug
Zagorets
1 : 4 Spartak Plovdiv
30 May
Yambol 1915
4 : 2 Spartak Plovdiv
17 May
Nesebar
6 : 1 Spartak Plovdiv
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nesebar | 36 | 29 | 4 | 3 | 116:22 | 91 |
| 2 | Maritsa Plovdiv | 36 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 90:40 | 75 |
| 3 | Neftochimic Burgas | 36 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 53:39 | 66 |
| 4 | Yambol 1915 | 36 | 20 | 6 | 10 | 72:41 | 66 |
| 5 | Levski Karlovo | 36 | 20 | 5 | 11 | 64:53 | 65 |
| 6 | Maritsa Milevo | 36 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 64:32 | 60 |
| 7 | Spartak Plovdiv | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 64:58 | 54 |
| 8 | Sozopol | 36 | 16 | 6 | 14 | 50:38 | 54 |
| 9 | OFC Haskovo | 36 | 15 | 7 | 14 | 52:48 | 52 |
| 10 | Zagorets | 36 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 52:60 | 49 |
| 11 | Rozova Dolina | 36 | 14 | 6 | 16 | 45:52 | 48 |
| 12 | Gigant Saedinenie | 36 | 14 | 5 | 17 | 56:59 | 47 |
| 13 | Rodopa Smolyan | 36 | 14 | 4 | 18 | 51:70 | 46 |
| 14 | Atletik Kuklen | 36 | 13 | 3 | 20 | 43:78 | 42 |
| 15 | Sekirovo Rakovski | 36 | 9 | 8 | 19 | 30:53 | 35 |
| 16 | Dimitrovgrad | 36 | 10 | 5 | 21 | 42:82 | 35 |
| 17 | Lok. Plovdiv II | 36 | 9 | 6 | 21 | 44:53 | 33 |
| 18 | Rakovski 2011 | 36 | 8 | 3 | 25 | 46:94 | 27 |
| 19 | Asenovets | 36 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 30:92 | 23 |
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