Sport Picks
Nesebar vs Spartak Plovdiv
Bulgaria
Third League - South-East 2025/2026 Gradski stadion, Nesebar 
AI Match Summary
Nesebar in this Third League - South-East 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 6-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nesebar.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
20%
51%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Spartak Plovdiv
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Nesebar have won more games recently than Spartak Plovdiv.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- Regular Third League - South-East 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 82%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 82%
Over 3.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 39%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Nesebar Clean Sheet 11%
Spartak Plovdiv Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nesebar | Spartak Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 20 | 14 |
| Draws | 6 | 5 |
| Losses | 4 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 2.97 | 1.87 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.83 | 1.9 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 3.56 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 17, 2026 Third League - South-East
Nesebar vs Spartak Plovdiv
6:1
Nov 15, 2025 Third League - South-East
Spartak Plovdiv vs Nesebar
0:0
Apr 20, 2024 Third League - South-East
Nesebar vs Spartak Plovdiv
3:2
Oct 11, 2023 Third League - South-East
Spartak Plovdiv vs Nesebar
1:1
Feb 18, 2023 Third League - South-East
Nesebar vs Spartak Plovdiv
2:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nesebar 30 / 100
Spartak Plovdiv 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nesebar Spartak Plovdiv
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick SPA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Nesebar scored in 83% of their last 30 games.
Spartak Plovdiv let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
Recent resilience: Nesebar stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Nesebar VS Spartak Plovdiv
4 Goals Scored 2.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 3.13
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
75% Over 3.5 100%
Recent Form & Match History
Nesebar
(Home) 10 Aug
Nesebar
2 : 0 Dobrudzha
04 Aug
Montana
3 : 1 Nesebar
25 Jul
Nesebar
1 : 5 Etar
08 Jul
Spartak Varna
1 : 1 Nesebar
01 Jul
Ludogorets II
1 : 1 Nesebar
Page 1 of 6
10 Aug
Nesebar
2 : 0 Dobrudzha
25 Jul
Nesebar
1 : 5 Etar
27 May
Nesebar
8 : 1 Asenovets
17 May
Nesebar
6 : 1 Spartak Plovdiv
02 May
Nesebar
4 : 0 Rozova Dolina
Page 1 of 3
Spartak Plovdiv
(Away) 08 Aug
Spartak Plovdiv
4 : 3 Sozopol
30 May
Yambol 1915
4 : 2 Spartak Plovdiv
23 May
Spartak Plovdiv
3 : 1 Maritsa Plovdiv
17 May
Nesebar
6 : 1 Spartak Plovdiv
12 May
Spartak Plovdiv
4 : 0 Rozova Dolina
Page 1 of 6
30 May
Yambol 1915
4 : 2 Spartak Plovdiv
17 May
Nesebar
6 : 1 Spartak Plovdiv
09 May
Atletik Kuklen
2 : 4 Spartak Plovdiv
29 Apr
Maritsa Milevo
7 : 1 Spartak Plovdiv
17 Apr
Rodopa Smolyan
3 : 2 Spartak Plovdiv
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nesebar | 36 | 29 | 4 | 3 | 116:22 | 91 |
| 2 | Maritsa Plovdiv | 36 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 90:40 | 75 |
| 3 | Neftochimic Burgas | 36 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 53:39 | 66 |
| 4 | Yambol 1915 | 36 | 20 | 6 | 10 | 72:41 | 66 |
| 5 | Levski Karlovo | 36 | 20 | 5 | 11 | 64:53 | 65 |
| 6 | Maritsa Milevo | 36 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 64:32 | 60 |
| 7 | Spartak Plovdiv | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 64:58 | 54 |
| 8 | Sozopol | 36 | 16 | 6 | 14 | 50:38 | 54 |
| 9 | OFC Haskovo | 36 | 15 | 7 | 14 | 52:48 | 52 |
| 10 | Zagorets | 36 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 52:60 | 49 |
| 11 | Rozova Dolina | 36 | 14 | 6 | 16 | 45:52 | 48 |
| 12 | Gigant Saedinenie | 36 | 14 | 5 | 17 | 56:59 | 47 |
| 13 | Rodopa Smolyan | 36 | 14 | 4 | 18 | 51:70 | 46 |
| 14 | Atletik Kuklen | 36 | 13 | 3 | 20 | 43:78 | 42 |
| 15 | Sekirovo Rakovski | 36 | 9 | 8 | 19 | 30:53 | 35 |
| 16 | Dimitrovgrad | 36 | 10 | 5 | 21 | 42:82 | 35 |
| 17 | Lok. Plovdiv II | 36 | 9 | 6 | 21 | 44:53 | 33 |
| 18 | Rakovski 2011 | 36 | 8 | 3 | 25 | 46:94 | 27 |
| 19 | Asenovets | 36 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 30:92 | 23 |
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