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Netherlands vs Greece - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
VS
07:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Netherlands host Greece in the UEFA Nations League. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Netherlands at 2.42 goals for, 1.13 against; Greece at 1.7 for, 1 against. Head-to-head, Netherlands have won 2 to Greece's 1, with 2 draws. They last met on Oct 1, 2026, ending 2:2. Model xG sits at 1.44 vs 1.06, favoring Netherlands. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Netherlands
35%
Draws
32%
Greece
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Netherlands carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Netherlands are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Netherlands Clean Sheet 20%
Greece Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Netherlands Greece
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 16 15
Draws 10 6
Losses 5 9
Goals Scored 2.42 1.7
Goals Conceded 1.13 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 1, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Greece vs Netherlands
2:2
Oct 16, 2023 Euro
Greece vs Netherlands
0:1
Sep 7, 2023 Euro
Netherlands vs Greece
3:0
May 28, 2020 Friendly International
Netherlands vs Greece
0:0
Sep 1, 2016 Friendly International
Netherlands vs Greece
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Netherlands 40 / 100
Greece 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Netherlands Greece

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Netherlands Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Netherlands scored in 94% of their last 31 games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Netherlands stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Greece conceded in 57% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Netherlands VS Greece
2 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 38%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Netherlands

(Home)
04 Oct
Netherlands
2 : 1
Serbia
01 Oct
Greece
2 : 2
Netherlands
27 Sept
Serbia
1 : 2
Netherlands
24 Sept
Netherlands
1 : 1
Germany
30 Jun
Netherlands
1 : 2
Morocco
Page 1 of 7

Greece

(Away)
04 Oct
Greece
0 : 0
Germany
01 Oct
Greece
2 : 2
Netherlands
27 Sept
Germany
0 : 1
Greece
24 Sept
Serbia
1 : 2
Greece
07 Jun
Greece
0 : 1
Italy
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 France 4 3 1 0 7:2 10
2 Italy 4 2 1 1 8:5 7
3 Belgium 4 2 0 2 6:5 6
4 Turkey 4 0 0 4 2:11 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Netherlands 4 2 2 0 7:5 8
2 Greece 4 2 2 0 5:3 8
3 Germany 4 1 2 1 3:2 5
4 Serbia 4 0 0 4 3:8 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spain 4 4 0 0 12:5 12
2 England 4 3 0 1 14:3 9
3 Croatia 4 1 0 3 4:14 3
4 Czech Republic 4 0 0 4 2:10 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugal 4 4 0 0 9:4 12
2 Denmark 4 2 0 2 7:7 6
3 Wales 4 1 0 3 2:5 3
4 Norway 4 1 0 3 6:8 3
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)