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Netherlands vs Iceland

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Friendly International 2024 De Kuip
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AI Match Summary

Netherlands play Iceland in the Friendly International 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Netherlands averaged 2.42 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Iceland averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. In past meetings, Netherlands won 3, Iceland won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 10, 2024 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.06 for Netherlands and 1.06 for Iceland. This points to a Netherlands double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Netherlands
15%
Draws
31%
Iceland
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Netherlands

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence
  • Netherlands picked up more points recently compared to Iceland.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.06 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 65%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 65%
Over 3.5 Goals 39%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%
Netherlands Clean Sheet 22%
Iceland Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 79%
Second Half Goal 84%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Netherlands Iceland
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 16 10
Draws 9 4
Losses 6 16
Goals Scored 2.42 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 10, 2024 Friendly International
Netherlands vs Iceland
4:0
Sep 3, 2015 Euro
Netherlands vs Iceland
0:1
Oct 13, 2014 Euro
Iceland vs Netherlands
2:0
Jun 6, 2009 World Championship
Iceland vs Netherlands
1:2
Oct 11, 2008 World Championship
Netherlands vs Iceland
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Netherlands Compare

Top Goalscorer Simons X.
1 Goals
Assists Leader van Dijk V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Iceland Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Netherlands 53 / 100
Iceland 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Netherlands Iceland

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Netherlands Win (1)
Secondary Pick Netherlands & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.2%
2.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.69
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Netherlands attacking → ← attacking Iceland

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Netherlands scored in 90% of their last 31 games.

Iceland let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Netherlands went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Iceland lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

57 Points in last 5 34
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.13