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New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands Prediction & H2H Stats

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Nations Cup
Fri, Jun 21, 2024
VS
01:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 0-0. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Form suggests where the edge lies here. New Caledonia have averaged 2.19 scored and 1.43 conceded recently, against Solomon Islands's 1.71 scored and 1.82 conceded. Head-to-head, New Caledonia have won 2 to Solomon Islands's 1, with 2 draws. They last met on Sep 21, 2026, ending 0:2. xG projections (1.94 - 1.00) back New Caledonia to edge this. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
New Caledonia
30%
Draws
47%
Solomon Islands
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Solomon Islands

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Low Confidence
  • Solomon Islands haven't matched New Caledonia's recent run of results.
  • 23% — that's where the model lands on New Caledonia taking it.
  • New Caledonia have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Solomon Islands, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
New Caledonia Clean Sheet 20%
Solomon Islands Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric New Caledonia Solomon Islands
Matches Played 21 28
Wins 12 10
Draws 1 4
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 2.19 1.71
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 21, 2026 Friendly International
New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands
0:2
Nov 14, 2025 Friendly International
Solomon Islands vs New Caledonia
0:0
Nov 14, 2024 World Championship
Solomon Islands vs New Caledonia
2:3
Jun 21, 2024 OFC Nations Cup
New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands
0:0
Dec 1, 2023 Pacific Games
New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

New Caledonia 40 / 100
Solomon Islands 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
New Caledonia Solomon Islands

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick New Caledonia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

New Caledonia scored in 81% of their last 21 games.

Defensive concern: Solomon Islands conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Recent resilience: New Caledonia stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

New Caledonia VS Solomon Islands
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 3
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

New Caledonia

(Home)
30 Sept
Fiji
2 : 1
New Caledonia
27 Sept
Vanuatu
4 : 1
New Caledonia
24 Sept
Papua New Guinea
1 : 2
New Caledonia
21 Sept
New Caledonia
0 : 2
Solomon Islands
27 Mar
New Caledonia
0 : 1
Jamaica
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Solomon Islands

(Away)
30 Sept
Papua New Guinea
1 : 1
Solomon Islands
24 Sept
Solomon Islands
3 : 3
Vanuatu
21 Sept
New Caledonia
0 : 2
Solomon Islands
18 Sept
Fiji
3 : 3
Solomon Islands
30 Mar
Saint Kitts and Nevis
4 : 2
Solomon Islands
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New Zealand 2 2 0 0 7:0 6
2 Vanuatu 2 1 0 1 1:4 3
3 Solomon Islands 2 0 0 2 0:4 0
4 New Caledonia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Fiji 3 3 0 0 15:2 9
2 Tahiti 3 1 1 1 3:2 4
3 Papua New Guinea 3 1 1 1 4:7 4
4 Samoa 3 0 0 3 2:13 0
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup (Play Offs)