Sport Picks
New Mexico vs Phoenix Rising - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
USL Championship Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park, Albuquerque, NM 
Match Events
5'
5'
Hurst G.
Assist: Dennis C.
22'
22'
Flores D.
35'
35'
Jabang O.
AI Match Summary
The USL Championship game between New Mexico and Phoenix Rising finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward New Mexico.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
30%
31%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: New Mexico
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and New Mexico come out ahead of Phoenix Rising on wins alone.
- 39% — that's where the model lands on New Mexico taking it.
- Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
New Mexico Clean Sheet 17%
Phoenix Rising Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | New Mexico | Phoenix Rising |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 15 | 10 |
| Draws | 8 | 7 |
| Losses | 6 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.66 | 1.27 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.21 | 1.57 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 4, 2026 USL Championship
New Mexico vs Phoenix Rising
2:1
Jun 7, 2026 USL Cup
New Mexico vs Phoenix Rising
4:0
Apr 12, 2026 USL Championship
Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico
3:0
Oct 5, 2025 USL Championship
Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico
0:1
Jun 1, 2025 USL Cup
Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico
4:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
New Mexico Compare
Top Goalscorer Hurst G.
1 Goals Assists Leader Wilkerson C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Phoenix Rising Compare
Top Goalscorer Arase K.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
New Mexico 57 / 100
Phoenix Rising 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
New Mexico Phoenix Rising
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick New Mexico Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Phoenix Rising has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.
These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.
Attacking prowess: New Mexico scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.
New Mexico went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
New Mexico VS Phoenix Rising
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
New Mexico
(Home) 04 Oct
New Mexico
2 : 1 Phoenix Rising
01 Oct
FC Tulsa
1 : 0 New Mexico
27 Sept
New Mexico
2 : 3 Sacramento Republic
20 Sept
Colorado Springs
0 : 0 New Mexico
17 Sept
Birmingham Legion
4 : 4 New Mexico
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
New Mexico
2 : 1 Phoenix Rising
27 Sept
New Mexico
2 : 3 Sacramento Republic
12 Sept
New Mexico
2 : 2 Indy Eleven
30 Aug
New Mexico
1 : 2 San Antonio FC
27 Aug
New Mexico
2 : 1 Lexington
Page 1 of 4
Phoenix Rising
(Away) 04 Oct
New Mexico
2 : 1 Phoenix Rising
27 Sept
Oakland Roots
3 : 0 Phoenix Rising
20 Sept
Phoenix Rising
1 : 3 El Paso Locomotive
13 Sept
Phoenix Rising
2 : 1 FC Tulsa
06 Sept
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Phoenix Rising
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
New Mexico
2 : 1 Phoenix Rising
27 Sept
Oakland Roots
3 : 0 Phoenix Rising
06 Sept
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Phoenix Rising
23 Aug
Sacramento Republic
2 : 2 Phoenix Rising
08 Aug
Lexington
1 : 0 Phoenix Rising
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 46:25 | 52 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 33:20 | 47 |
| 3 | Charleston | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 52:31 | 46 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 29:26 | 39 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 39:29 | 38 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 28:27 | 38 |
| 7 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 43:42 | 37 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 38:45 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 33:33 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 32:44 | 24 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 36:43 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 27:55 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32:73 | 14 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 46:35 | 47 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41:32 | 46 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 37:25 | 44 |
| 4 | Lexington | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 49:33 | 43 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 32:25 | 42 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40:37 | 40 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 36:42 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 29:29 | 38 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35:38 | 36 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 33:35 | 34 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36:40 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 29:47 | 21 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
