Sport Picks

Stadium Background

New York City vs Chicago Fire

USA USA

MLS Yankee Stadium
Sat, Jul 25, 2026
VS
11:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

New York City host Chicago Fire in the MLS. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. New York City have averaged 1.5 scored and 1.25 conceded recently, against Chicago Fire's 2.38 scored and 1.63 conceded. Past meetings favor New York City slightly — 3-0-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 14, 2025, ending 1:3. The numbers (1.56 xG vs 1.81) point toward Chicago Fire. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
New York City
39%
Draws
30%
Chicago Fire
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Chicago Fire come out ahead of New York City on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
New York City Clean Sheet 11%
Chicago Fire Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric New York City Chicago Fire
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 16
Draws 6 6
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 1.5 2.38
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 14, 2025 MLS
Chicago Fire vs New York City
1:3
May 25, 2025 MLS
New York City vs Chicago Fire
3:1
Aug 24, 2024 MLS
New York City vs Chicago Fire
2:2
Jul 14, 2024 MLS
Chicago Fire vs New York City
0:0
Oct 21, 2023 MLS
New York City vs Chicago Fire
1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

New York City 30 / 100
Chicago Fire 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
New York City Chicago Fire

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CHI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

New York City's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Chicago Fire conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: New York City stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

New York City VS Chicago Fire
1.5 Goals Scored 2.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps14102234:1232
2San Jose Earthquakes15102334:1532
3Los Angeles FC1683527:1727
4Real Salt Lake1482426:1926
5FC Dallas1574430:2225
6Seattle Sounders1473418:1624
7Houston Dynamo1471619:2322
8Minnesota United1564518:2222
9Los Angeles Galaxy1655622:2520
10St. Louis City1554619:2219
11Portland Timbers1552827:2917
12San Diego FC1545630:2717
13Colorado Rapids1551925:2416
14Austin FC1535719:3114
15Sporting Kansas City15321016:3911
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Nashville SC15113132:1136
2Inter Miami1594239:2831
3Chicago Fire1482427:1626
4New England Revolution1481522:1825
5New York Red Bulls1564525:3222
6Charlotte FC1563624:2321
7FC Cincinnati1555536:3720
8New York City1554625:2119
9DC United1546521:2518
10Columbus Crew1544721:2316
11CF Montreal1543822:3115
12Toronto FC1536622:2915
13Orlando City1542923:4414
14Atlanta United15321014:2411
15Philadelphia Union15141018:307