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New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

MLS Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, NJ
New York Red Bulls Logo

New York Red Bulls

1 - 1
FT
Chicago Fire Logo

Chicago Fire

Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Barroso L.
38' Event
Haile-Selassie M.
Assist: Radojevic V.
46'
Sub
Jimenez M. In: Ruvalcaba J.
Out: Jimenez M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The MLS game between New York Red Bulls and Chicago Fire finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
New York Red Bulls
20%
Draws
40%
Chicago Fire
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Chicago Fire carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives New York Red Bulls a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular MLS form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
New York Red Bulls Clean Sheet 18%
Chicago Fire Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric New York Red Bulls Chicago Fire
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 8 14
Draws 6 5
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 1.3 1.93
Goals Conceded 2 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 MLS
New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire
1:1
May 9, 2026 MLS
Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls
1:3
Jul 27, 2025 MLS
Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls
1:0
Apr 5, 2025 MLS
New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire
2:1
Sep 15, 2024 MLS
Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

New York Red Bulls Compare

Top Goalscorer Harper C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Chicago Fire Compare

Top Goalscorer Haile-Selassie M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

New York Red Bulls 36 / 100
Chicago Fire 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
New York Red Bulls Chicago Fire

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Chicago Fire conceded in 81% of 27 recent games.

Attacking prowess: New York Red Bulls scored in 70% of their last 27 outings.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Recent resilience: New York Red Bulls stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

New York Red Bulls VS Chicago Fire
0.38 Goals Scored 1.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.88
38% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

New York Red Bulls

(Home)
30 Sept
New York Red Bulls
0 : 3
St. Louis City
18 Sept
New York City
0 : 1
New York Red Bulls
12 Sept
Columbus Crew
0 : 1
New York Red Bulls
10 Sept
Los Angeles FC
2 : 0
New York Red Bulls
06 Sept
Seattle Sounders
0 : 0
New York Red Bulls
Page 1 of 6

Chicago Fire

(Away)
07 Oct
Chicago Fire
3 : 1
Vancouver Whitecaps
26 Sept
Charlotte FC
0 : 1
Chicago Fire
20 Sept
Nashville SC
3 : 0
Chicago Fire
13 Sept
Chicago Fire
1 : 2
New England Revolution
10 Sept
Chicago Fire
1 : 1
Inter Miami
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 27 15 5 7 60:29 50
2 St. Louis City 27 13 8 6 48:36 47
3 FC Dallas 27 13 8 6 50:42 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13 6 8 49:39 45
5 Houston Dynamo 27 13 5 9 34:32 44
6 Los Angeles FC 28 11 8 9 43:30 41
7 Seattle Sounders 27 10 8 9 35:35 38
8 Colorado Rapids 27 11 3 13 38:38 36
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 37:44 36
10 Portland Timbers 27 9 5 13 48:51 32
11 Real Salt Lake 27 9 5 13 40:44 32
12 San Diego FC 27 8 8 11 47:47 32
13 Austin FC 27 7 10 10 35:47 31
14 Minnesota United 27 7 8 12 40:49 29
15 Sporting Kansas City 27 6 3 18 32:65 21
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 27 18 6 3 55:21 60
2 Chicago Fire 28 14 6 8 51:40 48
3 New England Revolution 27 14 4 9 45:36 46
4 Inter Miami 27 12 10 5 64:50 46
5 Charlotte FC 27 12 7 8 47:38 43
6 Philadelphia Union 27 11 6 10 54:44 39
7 Orlando City 27 10 4 13 48:64 34
8 New York Red Bulls 27 9 6 12 34:51 33
9 New York City 28 8 9 11 42:38 33
10 FC Cincinnati 26 8 9 9 55:64 33
11 Toronto FC 28 7 11 10 41:52 32
12 DC United 26 6 12 8 34:42 30
13 Columbus Crew 27 8 5 14 39:43 29
14 Atlanta United 27 7 6 14 32:45 27
15 CF Montreal 28 6 6 16 35:56 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)