Sport Picks
New York Red Bulls vs New York City
USA
US Open Cup Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, NJ 
Match Events
9'
9'
Trewin K.
Assist: Moralez M.
14'
14'
Hall J.
Assist: Cowell C.
39'
39'
Raul Gustavo
Assist: Moralez M.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-3, with New York City advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
44%
20%
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
71%
/ Medium Confidence
- New York City carry the better recent record into this one.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
- New York City arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor New York City, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
New York Red Bulls Clean Sheet 16%
New York City Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | New York Red Bulls | New York City |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 31 |
| Wins | 10 | 14 |
| Draws | 4 | 6 |
| Losses | 15 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 1.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.88 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.88 | 1.00 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 16, 2026 MLS
New York Red Bulls vs New York City
1:1
Apr 29, 2026 US Open Cup
New York Red Bulls vs New York City
1:3
Sep 27, 2025 MLS
New York Red Bulls vs New York City
2:3
May 17, 2025 MLS
New York City vs New York Red Bulls
2:0
Nov 23, 2024 MLS
New York City vs New York Red Bulls
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
New York Red Bulls Compare
Top Goalscorer Hall J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
New York City Compare
Top Goalscorer Trewin K.
1 Goals Assists Leader Raul Gustavo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
New York Red Bulls 36 / 100
New York City 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
New York Red Bulls New York City
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick NYC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
New York City has conceded goals in 81% of their last 31 outings.
New York Red Bulls's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.
New York Red Bulls went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
New York Red Bulls VS New York City
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
New York Red Bulls
(Home) 25 Jul
New York Red Bulls
0 : 2 Charlotte FC
22 Jul
Philadelphia Union
3 : 1 New York Red Bulls
24 May
Sporting Kansas City
1 : 2 New York Red Bulls
16 May
New York Red Bulls
1 : 1 New York City
13 May
New York Red Bulls
3 : 2 Columbus Crew
Page 1 of 6
25 Jul
New York Red Bulls
0 : 2 Charlotte FC
16 May
New York Red Bulls
1 : 1 New York City
13 May
New York Red Bulls
3 : 2 Columbus Crew
02 May
New York Red Bulls
0 : 2 FC Dallas
29 Apr
New York Red Bulls
1 : 3 New York City
Page 1 of 4
New York City
(Away) 25 Jul
New York City
3 : 1 Chicago Fire
22 Jul
Columbus Crew
1 : 2 New York City
24 May
Nashville SC
2 : 1 New York City
20 May
Columbus Crew
1 : 0 New York City
16 May
New York Red Bulls
1 : 1 New York City
Page 1 of 7
22 Jul
Columbus Crew
1 : 2 New York City
24 May
Nashville SC
2 : 1 New York City
20 May
Columbus Crew
1 : 0 New York City
16 May
New York Red Bulls
1 : 1 New York City
13 May
Charlotte FC
0 : 1 New York City
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
FC Naples3
Red Force0
South Georgia Tormenta-
America CFL Spurs-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Orlando City-
New England Revolution-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Rhode Island4
Faialense0
Motown0
Hartford Athletic2
Chattanooga2
Kalonji1
Tennessee Tempo1
Chattanooga Red Wolves0
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Atlanta United-
Charlotte FC-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Charlotte Independence4
Ristozi FC1
Charleston2
Florida Badgers1
Richmond Kickers2
Northern Virginia0
West Chester United1
Loudoun United2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Columbus Crew-
DC United-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Asheville City3
Greenville Triumph1
Vistula1
One Knoxville3
Vermont Green1
Portland Hearts of Pine0
Westchester SC2
NY Renegades0
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
New York City-
New York Red Bulls-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Steel City1
Pittsburgh Riverhounds2
Carolina Core1
Virginia Dream2
Flint City2
Forward Madison0
Detroit City5
Michigan Rangers1
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Chicago Fire-
St. Louis City-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
San Antonio FC6
New Stars0
Little Rock Rangers2
FC Tulsa4
Lexington9
Flower City Union0
Louisville City2
Southern Indiana0
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Austin FC-
Houston Dynamo-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
New Mexico3
Cruizers FC2
Laredo Heat0
El Paso Locomotive2
Colorado Springs3
Azteca0
Ventura1
Spokane Velocity2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Sporting Kansas City-
Colorado Rapids-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Indy Eleven3
Menace0
BOHFS St. Louis0
Union Omaha8
AV Alta FC0
Valley 559 FC1
Sacramento Republic2
El Farolito0
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Minnesota United-
San Jose Earthquakes-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Orange County SC3
Laguna United0
Phoenix Rising4
San Ramon0
1/32-finals
FC Naples3
America CFL Spurs0
TBD-
Orlando City-
New England Revolution-
TBD-
Rhode Island2
Hartford Athletic0
Chattanooga1
Tennessee Tempo0
TBD-
Atlanta United-
Charlotte FC-
TBD-
Charlotte Independence3
Charleston2
Richmond Kickers1
Loudoun United0
TBD-
Columbus Crew-
DC United-
TBD-
Asheville City1
One Knoxville2
Vermont Green0
Westchester SC1
TBD-
New York City-
New York Red Bulls-
TBD-
Pittsburgh Riverhounds2
Virginia Dream0
Flint City0
Detroit City1
TBD-
Chicago Fire-
St. Louis City-
TBD-
San Antonio FC0
FC Tulsa1
Lexington0
Louisville City2
TBD-
Austin FC-
Houston Dynamo-
TBD-
New Mexico0
El Paso Locomotive4
Colorado Springs2
Spokane Velocity1
TBD-
Sporting Kansas City-
Colorado Rapids-
TBD-
Indy Eleven1
Union Omaha2
Valley 559 FC0
Sacramento Republic4
TBD-
Minnesota United-
San Jose Earthquakes-
TBD-
Orange County SC1
Phoenix Rising2
1/16-finals
FC Naples0
Orlando City1
New England Revolution2
Rhode Island1
Chattanooga1
Atlanta United3
Charlotte FC6
Charlotte Independence0
Richmond Kickers0
Columbus Crew3
DC United3
One Knoxville4
Westchester SC2
New York City5
New York Red Bulls3
Pittsburgh Riverhounds1
Detroit City1
Chicago Fire2
St. Louis City4
FC Tulsa0
Louisville City2
Austin FC1
Houston Dynamo4
El Paso Locomotive1
Colorado Springs3
Sporting Kansas City0
Colorado Rapids1
Union Omaha0
Sacramento Republic0
Minnesota United1
San Jose Earthquakes2
Phoenix Rising0
1/8-finals
Orlando City4
New England Revolution3
Atlanta United2
Charlotte FC0
Columbus Crew4
One Knoxville1
New York City3
New York Red Bulls1
Chicago Fire1
St. Louis City2
Louisville City1
Houston Dynamo2
Colorado Springs2
Colorado Rapids3
Minnesota United2
San Jose Earthquakes4
Quarter-finals
Orlando City4
Atlanta United1
Columbus Crew1
New York City0
St. Louis City3
Houston Dynamo2
Colorado Rapids2
San Jose Earthquakes0
Semi-finals
Orlando City-
Columbus Crew-
St. Louis City-
Colorado Rapids-
Final
TBD-
TBD-
