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New York Red Bulls vs San Diego FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

MLS Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, NJ
New York Red Bulls Logo

New York Red Bulls

4 - 1
FT
San Diego FC Logo

San Diego FC

Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Hall J.
Assist: Ruvalcaba J.
20' Event
Padelford D.
Assist: Cowell C.
27' Event
Ruvalcaba J.
Assist: Donkor R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

New York Red Bulls in this MLS matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored New York Red Bulls.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
New York Red Bulls
30%
Draws
16%
San Diego FC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: New York Red Bulls

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: San Diego FC at 1.55 per game, New York Red Bulls at 1.3.
  • 54% — that's where the model lands on New York Red Bulls taking it.
  • Regular MLS form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
New York Red Bulls Clean Sheet 16%
San Diego FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric New York Red Bulls San Diego FC
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 8 8
Draws 6 8
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1.3 1.55
Goals Conceded 2 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 10, 2026 MLS
New York Red Bulls vs San Diego FC
4:1
Feb 15, 2025 Club Friendly
San Diego FC vs New York Red Bulls
6:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

New York Red Bulls Compare

Top Goalscorer Hall J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Padelford D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

San Diego FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Bakambu C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

New York Red Bulls 57 / 100
San Diego FC 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
New York Red Bulls San Diego FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick New York Red Bulls Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 5.50 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: New York Red Bulls scored in 70% of their last 27 outings.

Defensive concern: San Diego FC conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: New York Red Bulls stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

New York Red Bulls VS San Diego FC
0.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.25
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

New York Red Bulls

(Home)
30 Sept
New York Red Bulls
0 : 3
St. Louis City
18 Sept
New York City
0 : 1
New York Red Bulls
12 Sept
Columbus Crew
0 : 1
New York Red Bulls
10 Sept
Los Angeles FC
2 : 0
New York Red Bulls
06 Sept
Seattle Sounders
0 : 0
New York Red Bulls
Page 1 of 6

San Diego FC

(Away)
27 Sept
Austin FC
3 : 3
San Diego FC
20 Sept
Inter Miami
2 : 2
San Diego FC
14 Sept
San Diego FC
0 : 5
Philadelphia Union
10 Sept
San Diego FC
2 : 3
San Jose Earthquakes
05 Sept
Orlando City
1 : 0
San Diego FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 28 15 6 7 61:30 51
2 St. Louis City 27 13 8 6 48:36 47
3 FC Dallas 28 13 8 7 52:45 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 28 13 7 8 50:40 46
5 Houston Dynamo 28 13 6 9 36:34 45
6 Los Angeles FC 29 11 9 9 44:31 42
7 Seattle Sounders 28 11 8 9 38:35 41
8 Colorado Rapids 28 11 4 13 39:39 37
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 37:44 36
10 Portland Timbers 28 9 6 13 51:54 33
11 Real Salt Lake 28 9 5 14 41:46 32
12 San Diego FC 28 8 8 12 48:51 32
13 Austin FC 28 7 10 11 36:51 31
14 Minnesota United 28 7 9 12 42:51 30
15 Sporting Kansas City 28 6 4 18 35:68 22
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 28 19 6 3 59:22 63
2 Inter Miami 28 13 10 5 68:50 49
3 Chicago Fire 28 14 6 8 51:40 48
4 New England Revolution 28 14 4 10 45:39 46
5 Charlotte FC 28 13 7 8 50:40 46
6 Philadelphia Union 28 12 6 10 56:45 42
7 Orlando City 28 11 4 13 51:66 37
8 New York Red Bulls 28 10 6 12 38:52 36
9 FC Cincinnati 27 9 9 9 58:65 36
10 New York City 28 8 9 11 42:38 33
11 Toronto FC 28 7 11 10 41:52 32
12 DC United 27 6 12 9 34:46 30
13 Columbus Crew 28 8 5 15 41:46 29
14 Atlanta United 28 7 6 15 33:48 27
15 CF Montreal 28 6 6 16 35:56 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)