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New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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MLS Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, NJ
New York Red Bulls Logo

New York Red Bulls

0 - 3
FT
St. Louis City Logo

St. Louis City

Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Navarro R.
Assist: Wallem C.
35'
Baumgartl T.
63'
Sub
Padelford D. In: Faello C.
Out: Padelford D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

St. Louis City in this MLS matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored St. Louis City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
New York Red Bulls
20%
Draws
52%
St. Louis City
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: St. Louis City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • St. Louis City have won more games recently than New York Red Bulls.
  • Win probability leans St. Louis City's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular MLS form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
New York Red Bulls Clean Sheet 10%
St. Louis City Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric New York Red Bulls St. Louis City
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 17
Draws 6 7
Losses 13 5
Goals Scored 1.31 2.03
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 30, 2026 MLS
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City
0:3
Jan 24, 2026 Club Friendly
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City
3:1
Jan 29, 2025 Club Friendly
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City
0:1
Feb 10, 2024 Club Friendly
St. Louis City vs New York Red Bulls
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

New York Red Bulls Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

St. Louis City Compare

Top Goalscorer Navarro R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Becher S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

New York Red Bulls 10 / 100
St. Louis City 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
New York Red Bulls St. Louis City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick St. Louis City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

New York Red Bulls scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

St. Louis City let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

New York Red Bulls has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

New York Red Bulls VS St. Louis City
0.63 Goals Scored 2.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

New York Red Bulls

(Home)
30 Sept
New York Red Bulls
0 : 3
St. Louis City
18 Sept
New York City
0 : 1
New York Red Bulls
12 Sept
Columbus Crew
0 : 1
New York Red Bulls
10 Sept
Los Angeles FC
2 : 0
New York Red Bulls
06 Sept
Seattle Sounders
0 : 0
New York Red Bulls
Page 1 of 6

St. Louis City

(Away)
30 Sept
New York Red Bulls
0 : 3
St. Louis City
20 Sept
St. Louis City
3 : 1
Toronto FC
17 Sept
Colorado Rapids
0 : 3
St. Louis City
13 Sept
St. Louis City
4 : 2
Minnesota United
10 Sept
Portland Timbers
2 : 2
St. Louis City
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 27 15 5 7 60:29 50
2 St. Louis City 27 13 8 6 48:36 47
3 FC Dallas 27 13 8 6 50:42 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13 6 8 49:39 45
5 Houston Dynamo 27 13 5 9 34:32 44
6 Los Angeles FC 28 11 8 9 43:30 41
7 Seattle Sounders 27 10 8 9 35:35 38
8 Colorado Rapids 27 11 3 13 38:38 36
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 37:44 36
10 Portland Timbers 27 9 5 13 48:51 32
11 Real Salt Lake 27 9 5 13 40:44 32
12 San Diego FC 27 8 8 11 47:47 32
13 Austin FC 27 7 10 10 35:47 31
14 Minnesota United 27 7 8 12 40:49 29
15 Sporting Kansas City 27 6 3 18 32:65 21
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 27 18 6 3 55:21 60
2 New England Revolution 27 14 4 9 45:36 46
3 Inter Miami 27 12 10 5 64:50 46
4 Chicago Fire 27 13 6 8 49:39 45
5 Charlotte FC 27 12 7 8 47:38 43
6 Philadelphia Union 27 11 6 10 54:44 39
7 Orlando City 27 10 4 13 48:64 34
8 New York Red Bulls 27 9 6 12 34:51 33
9 New York City 27 8 9 10 41:36 33
10 FC Cincinnati 26 8 9 9 55:64 33
11 DC United 26 6 12 8 34:42 30
12 Columbus Crew 27 8 5 14 39:43 29
13 Toronto FC 27 6 11 10 39:51 29
14 Atlanta United 27 7 6 14 32:45 27
15 CF Montreal 27 6 6 15 34:54 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)