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New Zealand vs Tahiti

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Nations Cup VFF Freshwater Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

New Zealand play Tahiti in the OFC Nations Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, New Zealand averaged 2.22 goals scored and 1.19 conceded. Tahiti averaged 2.13 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. In past meetings, New Zealand won 5, Tahiti won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 11, 2024 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.06 for New Zealand and 0.94 for Tahiti. This points to a New Zealand double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
New Zealand
15%
Draws
39%
Tahiti
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: New Zealand

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • New Zealand picked up more points recently compared to Tahiti.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.06 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 63%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 63%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
New Zealand Clean Sheet 24%
Tahiti Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric New Zealand Tahiti
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 15 15
Draws 3 4
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 2.22 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 11, 2024 World Championship
New Zealand vs Tahiti
3:0
Jun 27, 2024 OFC Nations Cup
New Zealand vs Tahiti
5:0
Mar 27, 2022 World Championship
New Zealand vs Tahiti
1:0
Oct 16, 2012 World Championship
New Zealand vs Tahiti
3:0
Oct 13, 2012 World Championship
Tahiti vs New Zealand
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

New Zealand Compare

Top Goalscorer Waine B.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Barbarouses K.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31

Tahiti Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

New Zealand 46 / 100
Tahiti 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
New Zealand Tahiti

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: New Zealand or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21%
2.63
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.3%
1.75
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

New Zealand attacking → ← attacking Tahiti

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

New Zealand scored in 72% of their last 32 games.

Tahiti let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

New Zealand went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Tahiti lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 49
2.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50