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New Zealand W vs Papua New Guinea W

World World

World Cup Women North Harbour Stadium, Auckland
Our Tip

Match Events

33'
Jackson D.
55' Event
Kitching K.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with New Zealand W advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
New Zealand W
28%
Draws
22%
Papua New Guinea W
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: New Zealand W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Papua New Guinea W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • New Zealand W are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Papua New Guinea W arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor New Zealand W, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • New Zealand W have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
New Zealand W Clean Sheet 10%
Papua New Guinea W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric New Zealand W Papua New Guinea W
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 12 19
Draws 4 4
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 2.38 2.88
Goals Conceded 2 0
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 2.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 15, 2026 World Cup Women
New Zealand W vs Papua New Guinea W
1:0
Oct 27, 2014 OFC Nations Cup Women
Papua New Guinea W vs New Zealand W
0:3
Oct 8, 2010 OFC Nations Cup Women
New Zealand W vs Papua New Guinea W
11:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

New Zealand W Compare

Top Goalscorer Kitching K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Papua New Guinea W Compare

Avg xG / game 2.62
Avg xA / game 1.6

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

New Zealand W 47 / 100
Papua New Guinea W 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
New Zealand W Papua New Guinea W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ZEA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

New Zealand W's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

New Zealand W went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Papua New Guinea W conceded in 58% of 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

New Zealand W VS Papua New Guinea W
2.38 Goals Scored 2.88
2 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

New Zealand W

(Home)
09 Jun
New Zealand W
0 : 0
Morocco W
05 Jun
New Zealand W
1 : 2
Haiti W
15 Apr
New Zealand W
1 : 0
Papua New Guinea W
11 Apr
New Zealand W
5 : 0
Fiji W
05 Mar
American Samoa W
0 : 3
New Zealand W
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Papua New Guinea W

(Away)
15 Apr
New Zealand W
1 : 0
Papua New Guinea W
11 Apr
Papua New Guinea W
1 : 0
American Samoa W
08 Mar
Papua New Guinea W
1 : 0
Fiji W
05 Mar
New Caledonia W
0 : 4
Papua New Guinea W
27 Feb
Papua New Guinea W
5 : 0
Vanuatu W
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
New Zealand W5
Fiji W0
Papua New Guinea W1
American Samoa W0
Final
New Zealand W1
Papua New Guinea W0