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Newcastle Croatia vs New Lambton

Australia Australia

Northern NSW State League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

New Lambton in this Northern NSW State League matchup, with the score ending 3-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored New Lambton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Newcastle Croatia
15%
Draws
32%
New Lambton
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Newcastle Croatia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Newcastle Croatia lately — more wins on the board than New Lambton.
  • Newcastle Croatia are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Newcastle Croatia Clean Sheet 10%
New Lambton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newcastle Croatia New Lambton
Matches Played 21 30
Wins 12 11
Draws 1 3
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 2.62 1.6
Goals Conceded 2.24 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 20, 2026 Northern NSW State League
New Lambton vs Newcastle Croatia
1:4
Mar 28, 2026 Northern NSW State League
Newcastle Croatia vs New Lambton
3:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newcastle Croatia 83 / 100
New Lambton 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newcastle Croatia New Lambton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Newcastle Croatia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Newcastle Croatia scored in 95% of their last 21 outings.

These sides typically produce 6.00 goals when they meet.

New Lambton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Newcastle Croatia has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Newcastle Croatia VS New Lambton
2.88 Goals Scored 2.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Newcastle Croatia

(Home)
05 Sept
Kahibah
2 : 1
Newcastle Croatia
30 Aug
Wallsend Red Devils
2 : 3
Newcastle Croatia
22 Aug
Newcastle Croatia
6 : 6
Wallsend Red Devils
15 Aug
Newcastle Croatia
3 : 1
Wallsend Red Devils
08 Aug
Cessnock City Hornets
1 : 2
Newcastle Croatia
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New Lambton

(Away)
29 Aug
Kahibah
3 : 0
New Lambton
22 Aug
New Lambton
1 : 2
Kahibah
15 Aug
New Lambton
4 : 3
Cessnock City Hornets
08 Aug
Dudley Redhead United
1 : 0
New Lambton
01 Aug
West Wallsend FC
0 : 2
New Lambton
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lake Macquarie 18 13 2 3 64:24 41
2 Wallsend Red Devils 18 12 4 2 58:26 40
3 Newcastle Croatia 18 11 0 7 45:37 33
4 New Lambton 18 10 2 6 41:30 32
5 Dudley Redhead United 18 8 4 6 26:26 28
6 Cessnock City Hornets 18 6 2 10 31:40 20
7 West Wallsend FC 18 5 4 9 27:47 19
8 Singleton Strikers 18 5 3 10 20:42 18
9 South Cardiff 18 3 4 11 15:32 13
10 Toronto Awaba Stags 18 4 1 13 23:46 13
Promotion - NPL Northern NSW (Main)
Promotion - NPL Northern NSW (Relegation)