Sport Picks
Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar Prediction & H2H Stats
Australia
A-League 2025/2026 McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle 
Match Events
18'
18'
Rose L.
(Penalty)
35'
35'
Sub
O'Shea J. In: Lauton J.
Out: O'Shea J.
40'
40'
Long Ch.
AI Match Summary
Newcastle Jets in this A-League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Newcastle Jets.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
15%
51%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Brisbane Roar
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Newcastle Jets lately — more wins on the board than Brisbane Roar.
- Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Newcastle Jets Clean Sheet 10%
Brisbane Roar Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Newcastle Jets | Brisbane Roar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 15 | 9 |
| Draws | 4 | 7 |
| Losses | 11 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 2 | 1.4 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.73 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 31, 2026 A-League
Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar
4:1
Nov 9, 2025 A-League
Brisbane Roar vs Newcastle Jets
3:0
Aug 9, 2025 Club Friendly
Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar
1:3
Feb 21, 2025 A-League
Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar
3:1
Jan 7, 2025 A-League
Brisbane Roar vs Newcastle Jets
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Newcastle Jets Compare
Top Goalscorer Bayliss L.
2 Goals Assists Leader Taylor C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Brisbane Roar Compare
Top Goalscorer Valkanis D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Newcastle Jets 34 / 100
Brisbane Roar 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Newcastle Jets Brisbane Roar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Brisbane Roar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Newcastle Jets found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (30 games).
H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.
Brisbane Roar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.
Brisbane Roar's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.
Scoring Trends
Newcastle Jets VS Brisbane Roar
1.88 Goals Scored 2.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Newcastle Jets
(Home) 15 Sept
Kashima Antlers
7 : 1 Newcastle Jets
21 Jul
Preston Lions
3 : 2 Newcastle Jets
16 May
Newcastle Jets
1 : 2 Sydney FC
09 May
Sydney FC
1 : 1 Newcastle Jets
25 Apr
Newcastle Jets
4 : 0 Central Coast
Page 1 of 6
16 May
Newcastle Jets
1 : 2 Sydney FC
25 Apr
Newcastle Jets
4 : 0 Central Coast
11 Apr
Newcastle Jets
1 : 1 Adelaide Utd
14 Mar
Newcastle Jets
1 : 2 Auckland FC
07 Mar
Newcastle Jets
2 : 1 Western Sydney Wanderers
Page 1 of 3
Brisbane Roar
(Away) 04 Sept
Olympic FC
3 : 4 Brisbane Roar
29 Aug
Persija Jakarta
4 : 0 Brisbane Roar
27 Aug
Dewa United
4 : 0 Brisbane Roar
09 Aug
Brisbane Roar
2 : 4 Sydney FC
30 Jul
Sydney Olympic
0 : 3 Brisbane Roar
Page 1 of 6
04 Sept
Olympic FC
3 : 4 Brisbane Roar
29 Aug
Persija Jakarta
4 : 0 Brisbane Roar
27 Aug
Dewa United
4 : 0 Brisbane Roar
30 Jul
Sydney Olympic
0 : 3 Brisbane Roar
22 Jul
Ipswich
0 : 5 Brisbane Roar
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55:39 | 48 |
| 2 | Adelaide Utd | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46:36 | 43 |
| 3 | Auckland FC | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 42:29 | 42 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44:33 | 40 |
| 5 | Sydney FC | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 33:25 | 39 |
| 6 | Melbourne City | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33:33 | 38 |
| 7 | Macarthur FC | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37:44 | 34 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36:48 | 33 |
| 9 | Central Coast | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35:42 | 32 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32:39 | 31 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 27:36 | 26 |
| 12 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 27:43 | 21 |
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
