Sport Picks
Newcastle Utd vs Ath Bilbao
Europe
Champions League 2025/2026 St. James' Park, Newcastle 
Match Events
11'
11'
Burn D.
Assist: Trippier K.
41'
41'
Sub
Gordon A. In: Murphy J.
Out: Gordon A.
49'
49'
Joelinton
Assist: Barnes H.
AI Match Summary
Newcastle Utd in this Champions League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Newcastle Utd.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
59%
15%
26%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Newcastle Utd
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
59%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Ath Bilbao lately — more wins on the board than Newcastle Utd.
- Newcastle Utd are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Newcastle Utd here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Newcastle Utd Clean Sheet 13%
Ath Bilbao Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Newcastle Utd | Ath Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 31 |
| Wins | 11 | 13 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 13 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.75 | 1.68 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.79 | 1.42 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Nov 5, 2025 Champions League
Newcastle Utd vs Ath Bilbao
2:0
Jul 30, 2022 Club Friendly
Newcastle Utd vs Ath Bilbao
2:1
Nov 2, 1994 Europa League
Ath Bilbao vs Newcastle Utd
1:0
Oct 18, 1994 Europa League
Newcastle Utd vs Ath Bilbao
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Newcastle Utd Compare
Top Goalscorer Burn D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Joelinton
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84
Ath Bilbao Compare
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Newcastle Utd 84 / 100
Ath Bilbao 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Newcastle Utd Ath Bilbao
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Newcastle Utd Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Newcastle Utd scored in 93% of their last 28 outings.
Ath Bilbao's defensive record shows goals conceded in 74% of 31 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.75 goals per match.
Solid form: Newcastle Utd remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Newcastle Utd VS Ath Bilbao
1.63 Goals Scored 1.38
2 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Newcastle Utd
(Home) 29 Aug
Tottenham
0 : 2 Newcastle Utd
26 Aug
Newcastle Utd
3 : 2 West Brom
23 Aug
Newcastle Utd
2 : 2 Liverpool
16 Aug
Newcastle Utd
1 : 2 Strasbourg
15 Aug
Newcastle Utd
1 : 2 Bayer Leverkusen
Page 1 of 6
26 Aug
Newcastle Utd
3 : 2 West Brom
23 Aug
Newcastle Utd
2 : 2 Liverpool
16 Aug
Newcastle Utd
1 : 2 Strasbourg
15 Aug
Newcastle Utd
1 : 2 Bayer Leverkusen
12 Aug
Newcastle Utd
1 : 3 Everton
Page 1 of 3
Ath Bilbao
(Away) 30 Aug
Celta Vigo
0 : 2 Ath Bilbao
27 Aug
Barcelona
2 : 0 Ath Bilbao
22 Aug
Ath Bilbao
1 : 3 Sevilla
21 Aug
Zaragoza
3 : 1 Ath Bilbao
14 Aug
Atalanta
1 : 0 Ath Bilbao
Page 1 of 7
30 Aug
Celta Vigo
0 : 2 Ath Bilbao
27 Aug
Barcelona
2 : 0 Ath Bilbao
21 Aug
Zaragoza
3 : 1 Ath Bilbao
14 Aug
Atalanta
1 : 0 Ath Bilbao
09 Aug
Marseille
3 : 1 Ath Bilbao
Page 1 of 5
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23:4 | 24 |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 22:8 | 21 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 20:8 | 18 |
| 4 | Tottenham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17:7 | 17 |
| 5 | Barcelona | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22:14 | 16 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:10 | 16 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:11 | 16 |
| 8 | Manchester City | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15:9 | 16 |
| 9 | Real Madrid | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21:12 | 15 |
| 10 | Inter | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15:7 | 15 |
| 11 | PSG | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21:11 | 14 |
| 12 | Newcastle Utd | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:7 | 14 |
| 13 | Juventus | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14:10 | 13 |
| 14 | Atl. Madrid | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17:15 | 13 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10:10 | 13 |
| 16 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:14 | 12 |
| 17 | Dortmund | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 19:17 | 11 |
| 18 | Olympiacos Piraeus | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10:14 | 11 |
| 19 | Club Brugge | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15:17 | 10 |
| 20 | Galatasaray | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9:11 | 10 |
| 21 | Monaco | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:14 | 10 |
| 22 | Qarabag Agdam | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13:21 | 10 |
| 23 | Bodo/Glimt | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 24 | Benfica | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10:12 | 9 |
| 25 | Marseille | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11:14 | 9 |
| 26 | Pafos | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:11 | 9 |
| 27 | Royale Union SG | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 28 | PSV | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 16:16 | 8 |
| 29 | Ath Bilbao | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:14 | 8 |
| 30 | Napoli | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:15 | 8 |
| 31 | FC Copenhagen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:21 | 8 |
| 32 | Ajax | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 33 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10:21 | 4 |
| 34 | Slavia Prague | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5:19 | 3 |
| 35 | Villarreal | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5:18 | 1 |
| 36 | Kairat Almaty | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7:22 | 1 |
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)
