Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Newcastle Utd vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

Club Friendly St. James' Park, Newcastle
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Maza I.
Assist: Kofane C.
40'
Fernandez E.
44' Event
Thiaw M.
Assist: Elanga A.

AI Match Summary

Bayer Leverkusen in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bayer Leverkusen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Newcastle Utd
20%
Draws
40%
Bayer Leverkusen
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Bayer Leverkusen lately — more wins on the board than Newcastle Utd.
  • Model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 83%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 83%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Newcastle Utd Clean Sheet 10%
Bayer Leverkusen Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newcastle Utd Bayer Leverkusen
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 11 18
Draws 5 8
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 1.53 2.28
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Club Friendly
Newcastle Utd vs Bayer Leverkusen
1:2
Dec 10, 2025 Champions League
Bayer Leverkusen vs Newcastle Utd
2:2
Feb 26, 2003 Champions League
Newcastle Utd vs Bayer Leverkusen
3:1
Feb 18, 2003 Champions League
Bayer Leverkusen vs Newcastle Utd
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Newcastle Utd Compare

Top Goalscorer Thiaw M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Bayer Leverkusen Compare

Top Goalscorer Maza I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Boniface V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newcastle Utd 10 / 100
Bayer Leverkusen 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newcastle Utd Bayer Leverkusen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bayer Leverkusen Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newcastle Utd scored in 93% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 3.75 goals.

Recent resilience: Newcastle Utd stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Bayer Leverkusen let in goals in 59% of their last 32 matches.

Scoring Trends

Newcastle Utd VS Bayer Leverkusen
1.75 Goals Scored 2.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Newcastle Utd

(Home)
19 Sept
Newcastle Utd
2 : 1
Hull City
14 Sept
Leeds
4 : 1
Newcastle Utd
08 Sept
Millwall
0 : 1
Newcastle Utd
05 Sept
Newcastle Utd
2 : 2
Bournemouth
29 Aug
Tottenham
0 : 2
Newcastle Utd
Page 1 of 6

Bayer Leverkusen

(Away)
20 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 0
RB Leipzig
16 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 0
Celje
12 Sept
Augsburg
2 : 2
Bayer Leverkusen
05 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
4 : 0
Union Berlin
29 Aug
Elversberg
3 : 2
Bayer Leverkusen
Page 1 of 7