Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
This match ends 0-2, with Abergavenny Town advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
80%
11%
9%
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Newport City
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
93%
/ Very High Confidence
- Newport City carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Newport City a 80% chance of winning this.
- Newport City have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Abergavenny Town, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Newport City Clean Sheet 19%
Abergavenny Town Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Newport City | Abergavenny Town |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 8 | 3 |
| Draws | 7 | 2 |
| Losses | 15 | 24 |
| Goals Scored | 1.13 | 0 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.5 | 0 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 15, 2023 FA Cup
Newport City vs Abergavenny Town
0:2
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Newport City 76 / 100
Abergavenny Town 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Newport City Abergavenny Town
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick NEW Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Abergavenny Town conceded in 97% of 29 recent games.
Difficult form: Abergavenny Town registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
Attacking prowess: Newport City scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.
Scoring Trends
Newport City VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
1.5 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Newport City
(Home) 08 Jul
Newport City
0 : 5 Newport
26 Jun
Cambrian United
1 : 0 Newport City
18 Apr
Newport City
0 : 5 Trefelin
03 Apr
Ammanford Town
4 : 0 Newport City
28 Mar
Cardiff Draconians
0 : 1 Newport City
Page 1 of 6
08 Jul
Newport City
0 : 5 Newport
18 Apr
Newport City
0 : 5 Trefelin
20 Mar
Newport City
2 : 3 Treowen
06 Mar
Newport City
1 : 2 Baglan Dragons
01 Mar
Newport City
4 : 4 Carmarthen Town
Page 1 of 4
Abergavenny Town
(Away) 20 Apr
Abergavenny Town
1 : 3 Caerau Ely
13 Apr
Cwmbran Celtic
6 : 0 Abergavenny Town
01 Apr
Llantwit Major
4 : 0 Abergavenny Town
29 Mar
Afan Lido
6 : 0 Abergavenny Town
16 Mar
Baglan Dragons
2 : 0 Abergavenny Town
Page 1 of 6
13 Apr
Cwmbran Celtic
6 : 0 Abergavenny Town
01 Apr
Llantwit Major
4 : 0 Abergavenny Town
29 Mar
Afan Lido
6 : 0 Abergavenny Town
16 Mar
Baglan Dragons
2 : 0 Abergavenny Town
17 Feb
Cambrian United
6 : 0 Abergavenny Town
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Penrhyncoch2
Chirk AAA FC4
Porthmadog3
Glantraeth FC0
Newport City0
Abergavenny Town2
Cardiff Airport3
Cefn Fforest1
Rhyl1
Menai Bridge Tigers2
Tregaron Turfs2
Llanuwchllyn10
Corwen0
Bow Street4
TBD-
Buckley-
Penparcau FC0
Cefn Albion1
Holyhead0
Bangor 18764
Cerrigydrudion2
Denbigh4
TBD-
Flint Town-
Connahs Q.-
TBD-
TBD-
Caernarfon-
St. Asaph1
Llandudno Junction0
TBD-
Prestatyn-
Cardiff Corries2
Caerau Ely3
TBD-
Afan Lido-
Llanidloes Town5
Builth4
Radnor Valley0
Gresford4
Aberystwyth-
TBD-
TBD-
Pontardawe-
Bala-
TBD-
TBD-
Llandudno FC-
NFA0
Flint Mountain3
TBD-
Holywell Town FC-
Canton3
Sully Sports1
TBD-
Cambrian United-
Penydarren2
South Gower AFC3
Rockspur4
Afan United2
Chepstow Town7
Pill0
Abercarn United4
St Albans1
Haverfordwest-
TBD-
Baglan Dragons5
Cwmaman Institute1
Goytre Utd1
Trefelin3
Ammanford Town1
Taffs Well0
Cardiff Metropolitan University-
TBD-
Aber Valley2
Cwmbran Town3
Mochdre Sports0
Nantlle Vale FC2
Mold Alexandra13
Montgomery1
Pwllheli1
Felinheli2
TBD-
Newtown-
Colwyn Bay-
TBD-
Llanrwst United2
Conwy Borough1
Barry Town-
TBD-
Treharris Athletic1
Porthcawl Town2
Brickfield Rangers3
Caersws FC1
TBD-
Guilsfield-
Airbus UK Broughton FC-
TBD-
Penycae FC1
Rhos Aelwyd4
Aberfan2
Pontyclun FC1
TBD-
Briton Ferry-
Llanelli-
TBD-
TBD-
Llantwit Major-
Cwmbran Celtic-
TBD-
TBD-
Penybont-
Carmarthen Town-
TBD-
Mumbles Rangers1
Evans Williams2
Pontypridd United-
TBD-
Abertillery Bluebirds2
Caerphilly1
Ruthin Town-
TBD-
TBD-
TNS-
Trethomas Bluebirds4
Ely Rangers1
Llantwit Fardre3
Penrhiwceiber Rangers4
1/32-finals
Chirk AAA FC1
Porthmadog2
Abergavenny Town1
Cardiff Airport3
Menai Bridge Tigers0
Llanuwchllyn2
Bow Street2
Buckley3
Cefn Albion1
Bangor 18767
Denbigh0
Flint Town3
Connahs Q.4
Caernarfon1
St. Asaph0
Prestatyn1
Caerau Ely4
Afan Lido0
Llanidloes Town1
Gresford3
Aberystwyth2
Pontardawe1
Bala3
Llandudno FC0
Flint Mountain3
Holywell Town FC1
Canton2
Cambrian United1
South Gower AFC1
Rockspur0
Chepstow Town4
Abercarn United0
Haverfordwest1
Baglan Dragons0
Trefelin2
Ammanford Town3
Cardiff Metropolitan University4
Cwmbran Town0
Nantlle Vale FC2
Mold Alexandra3
Felinheli0
Newtown6
Colwyn Bay6
Llanrwst United2
Barry Town6
Porthcawl Town0
Brickfield Rangers2
Guilsfield7
Airbus UK Broughton FC4
Rhos Aelwyd0
Aberfan0
Briton Ferry3
Llanelli4
Llantwit Major0
Cwmbran Celtic0
Penybont3
Carmarthen Town2
Evans Williams0
Pontypridd United-
Abertillery Bluebirds-
Ruthin Town0
TNS5
Trethomas Bluebirds6
Penrhiwceiber Rangers1
1/16-finals
Porthmadog5
Cardiff Airport1
Llanuwchllyn1
Buckley2
Bangor 18761
Flint Town2
Connahs Q.8
Prestatyn0
Caerau Ely4
Gresford3
Aberystwyth0
Bala1
Flint Mountain2
Canton1
South Gower AFC3
Chepstow Town2
Haverfordwest2
Ammanford Town0
Cardiff Metropolitan University2
Mold Alexandra1
Newtown1
Colwyn Bay2
Barry Town1
Guilsfield0
Airbus UK Broughton FC1
Briton Ferry2
Llanelli4
Penybont3
Carmarthen Town4
Abertillery Bluebirds2
TNS7
Trethomas Bluebirds0
1/8-finals
Porthmadog0
Buckley2
Flint Town0
Connahs Q.3
Caerau Ely1
Bala4
Flint Mountain2
South Gower AFC1
Haverfordwest1
Cardiff Metropolitan University2
Colwyn Bay2
Barry Town0
Briton Ferry1
Llanelli0
Carmarthen Town0
TNS3
Quarter-finals
Buckley1
Connahs Q.4
Bala3
Flint Mountain0
Cardiff Metropolitan University3
Colwyn Bay2
Briton Ferry1
TNS5
Semi-finals
Connahs Q.1
Bala0
Cardiff Metropolitan University2
TNS6
Final
Connahs Q.2
TNS1
