Sport Picks
Match Events
21'
21'
Reed L.
35'
35'
Sage E.
42'
42'
Reed L.
AI Match Summary
The Cymru South 2025/2026 game between Newport City and Carmarthen Town finished 4-4.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
4%
6%
90%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Carmarthen Town
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Carmarthen Town carry the better recent record into this one.
- Carmarthen Town are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Newport City Clean Sheet 10%
Carmarthen Town Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Newport City | Carmarthen Town |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 10 |
| Draws | 7 | 10 |
| Losses | 14 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 3 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.88 | 2.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 2.88 | 2.25 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 1, 2026 Cymru South
Newport City vs Carmarthen Town
4:4
Sep 27, 2025 Cymru South
Carmarthen Town vs Newport City
1:0
Mar 22, 2025 Cymru South
Newport City vs Carmarthen Town
3:0
Sep 14, 2024 Cymru South
Carmarthen Town vs Newport City
1:0
Oct 8, 2022 FA Cup
Newport City vs Carmarthen Town
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Newport City Compare
Top Goalscorer Sage E.
1 Goals Assists Leader Johnson S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Carmarthen Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Reed L.
2 Goals Assists Leader Thomas L.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.73
Avg xA / game 1.67
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Newport City 10 / 100
Carmarthen Town 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Newport City Carmarthen Town
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick CAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Newport City scored in 60% of their last 30 games.
Defensive concern: Carmarthen Town conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.
Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.
Difficult form: Carmarthen Town registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Newport City VS Carmarthen Town
1 Goals Scored 3
2.88 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 75%
Recent Form & Match History
Newport City
(Home) 08 Jul
Newport City
0 : 5 Newport
26 Jun
Cambrian United
1 : 0 Newport City
18 Apr
Newport City
0 : 5 Trefelin
03 Apr
Ammanford Town
4 : 0 Newport City
28 Mar
Cardiff Draconians
0 : 1 Newport City
Page 1 of 6
08 Jul
Newport City
0 : 5 Newport
18 Apr
Newport City
0 : 5 Trefelin
20 Mar
Newport City
2 : 3 Treowen
06 Mar
Newport City
1 : 2 Baglan Dragons
01 Mar
Newport City
4 : 4 Carmarthen Town
Page 1 of 4
Carmarthen Town
(Away) 14 Jul
Carmarthen Town
2 : 3 Briton Ferry
07 Jul
Carmarthen Town
1 : 3 Cardiff Metropolitan University
03 Jul
Carmarthen Town
4 : 2 Trefelin
18 Apr
Treowen
4 : 1 Carmarthen Town
04 Apr
Carmarthen Town
0 : 1 Pontypridd United
Page 1 of 6
18 Apr
Treowen
4 : 1 Carmarthen Town
28 Mar
Baglan Dragons
0 : 7 Carmarthen Town
14 Mar
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 3 Carmarthen Town
06 Mar
Trethomas Bluebirds
4 : 5 Carmarthen Town
01 Mar
Newport City
4 : 4 Carmarthen Town
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trefelin | 30 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 83:17 | 78 |
| 2 | Cambrian United | 30 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 75:20 | 76 |
| 3 | Ammanford Town | 30 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 49:26 | 60 |
| 4 | Caerau Ely | 30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 66:34 | 57 |
| 5 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 45:38 | 45 |
| 6 | Aberystwyth | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 35:38 | 44 |
| 7 | Cardiff Draconians | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 50:48 | 40 |
| 8 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 44:47 | 37 |
| 9 | Treowen | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 51:63 | 37 |
| 10 | Newport City | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 36:48 | 37 |
| 11 | Pontypridd United | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 46:51 | 34 |
| 12 | Afan Lido | 30 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 32:57 | 30 |
| 13 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 45:62 | 29 |
| 14 | Baglan Dragons | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 26:52 | 25 |
| 15 | Ynyshir Albions | 30 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 27:56 | 23 |
| 16 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 25:78 | 10 |
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