Sport Picks
Newport City vs Carmarthen Town Prediction & H2H Stats
Wales
Cymru South 2025/2026 
Match Events
21'
21'
Reed L.
35'
35'
Sage E.
42'
42'
Reed L.
AI Match Summary
The Cymru South 2025/2026 game between Newport City and Carmarthen Town finished 4-4.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
30%
39%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Carmarthen Town
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
31%
/ Low Confidence
- Carmarthen Town carry the better recent record into this one.
- Newport City are the model's pick here, at 60%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Newport City Clean Sheet 68%
Carmarthen Town Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Newport City | Carmarthen Town |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 33 |
| Wins | 8 | 11 |
| Draws | 6 | 11 |
| Losses | 15 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.24 | 1.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.86 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 8, 2026 Cymru South
Newport City vs Carmarthen Town
1:2
Mar 1, 2026 Cymru South
Newport City vs Carmarthen Town
4:4
Sep 27, 2025 Cymru South
Carmarthen Town vs Newport City
1:0
Mar 22, 2025 Cymru South
Newport City vs Carmarthen Town
3:0
Sep 14, 2024 Cymru South
Carmarthen Town vs Newport City
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Newport City Compare
Top Goalscorer Sage E.
1 Goals Assists Leader Johnson S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
Carmarthen Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Reed L.
2 Goals Assists Leader Thomas L.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Newport City 68 / 100
Carmarthen Town 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Newport City Carmarthen Town
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Newport City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Carmarthen Town let in goals in 88% of their last 33 matches.
Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.
Newport City found the back of the net in 55% of recent matches (29 games).
Newport City has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Newport City VS Carmarthen Town
1.13 Goals Scored 2.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.38
50% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 88%
Recent Form & Match History
Newport City
(Home) 25 Sept
Afan Lido
0 : 0 Newport City
28 Aug
Newport City
0 : 1 Ynyshir Albions
21 Aug
Newport City
0 : 1 Baglan Dragons
15 Aug
Pontardawe
0 : 4 Newport City
08 Aug
Newport City
1 : 2 Carmarthen Town
Page 1 of 6
28 Aug
Newport City
0 : 1 Ynyshir Albions
21 Aug
Newport City
0 : 1 Baglan Dragons
08 Aug
Newport City
1 : 2 Carmarthen Town
08 Jul
Newport City
0 : 5 Newport
18 Apr
Newport City
0 : 5 Trefelin
Page 1 of 4
Carmarthen Town
(Away) 25 Sept
Baglan Dragons
1 : 2 Carmarthen Town
12 Sept
Carmarthen Town
2 : 2 Ynyshir Albions
31 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 3 Trethomas Bluebirds
28 Aug
Llanelli
2 : 2 Carmarthen Town
22 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 4 Treowen
Page 1 of 7
25 Sept
Baglan Dragons
1 : 2 Carmarthen Town
28 Aug
Llanelli
2 : 2 Carmarthen Town
08 Aug
Newport City
1 : 2 Carmarthen Town
18 Apr
Treowen
4 : 1 Carmarthen Town
28 Mar
Baglan Dragons
0 : 7 Carmarthen Town
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trefelin | 30 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 83:17 | 78 |
| 2 | Cambrian United | 30 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 75:20 | 76 |
| 3 | Ammanford Town | 30 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 49:26 | 60 |
| 4 | Caerau Ely | 30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 66:34 | 57 |
| 5 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 45:38 | 45 |
| 6 | Aberystwyth | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 35:38 | 44 |
| 7 | Cardiff Draconians | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 50:48 | 40 |
| 8 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 44:47 | 37 |
| 9 | Treowen | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 51:63 | 37 |
| 10 | Newport City | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 36:48 | 37 |
| 11 | Pontypridd United | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 46:51 | 34 |
| 12 | Afan Lido | 30 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 32:57 | 30 |
| 13 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 45:62 | 29 |
| 14 | Baglan Dragons | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 26:52 | 25 |
| 15 | Ynyshir Albions | 30 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 27:56 | 23 |
| 16 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 25:78 | 10 |
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