Sport Picks

Wales

Cymru South 2025/2026

Treowen

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Newport City play Treowen in the Cymru South 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Newport City averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.87 conceded. Treowen averaged 1.73 goals scored and 2 conceded. In past meetings, Newport City won 0, Treowen won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 20, 2026 ended 2:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Newport City and 2.31 for Treowen. This points to a Treowen double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%

Newport City

25%

Draws

43%

Treowen

Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Treowen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Newport City picked up more points recently compared to Treowen.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 2.31 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 61%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 81%

Over 2.5 Goals 61%

Over 3.5 Goals 37%

Over 4.5 Goals 18%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 60%

Newport City Clean Sheet 10%

Treowen Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 73%

Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Newport City	Treowen
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	9	11
Draws	8	7
Losses	14	12
Goals Scored	1.23	1.73
Goals Conceded	1.87	2
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.88	1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 20, 2026 Cymru South

Newport City vs Treowen

Possession: 47% - 49% Cards: 3 - 1

2:3

Nov 29, 2025 Cymru South

Treowen vs Newport City

Possession: 49% - 43% Cards: 0 - 2

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Newport City Compare

Top Goalscorer Sage E.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Mace C.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Treowen Compare

Top Goalscorer John D.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Campbell C.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.59

Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newport City 31 / 100

Treowen 41 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Newport City Treowen

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Treowen or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +33.4%

4.17

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11%

1.82

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Newport City attacking → ← attacking Treowen

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newport City scored in 61% of their last 31 games.

Treowen let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Newport City went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Treowen lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

35 Points in last 5 40

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.75

2.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Trefelin	30	25	3	2	83:17	78
2	Cambrian United	30	24	4	2	75:20	76
3	Ammanford Town	30	17	9	4	49:26	60
4	Caerau Ely	30	17	6	7	66:34	57
5	Carmarthen Town	30	11	12	7	45:38	45
6	Aberystwyth	30	13	5	12	35:38	44
7	Cardiff Draconians	30	12	4	14	50:48	40
8	Llantwit Major	30	9	10	11	44:47	37
9	Treowen	30	10	7	13	51:63	37
10	Newport City	30	9	10	11	36:48	37
11	Pontypridd United	30	9	7	14	46:51	34
12	Afan Lido	30	9	3	18	32:57	30
13	Trethomas Bluebirds	30	6	11	13	45:62	29
14	Baglan Dragons	30	5	10	15	26:52	25
15	Ynyshir Albions	30	5	8	17	27:56	23
16	Cwmbran Celtic	30	1	7	22	25:78	10