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Newport vs Crawley Town

England England

League Two 2025/2026 Rodney Parade, Newport
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Lloyd B.
28'
Richards L.
37'
Evans C.

AI Match Summary

Crawley Town in this League Two 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Crawley Town.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Newport
20%
Draws
40%
Crawley Town
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Newport have won more games recently than Crawley Town.
  • Newport are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular League Two 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Newport Clean Sheet 68%
Crawley Town Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newport Crawley Town
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 6
Draws 4 10
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 1.31 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.72 1.11
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 3, 2026 League Two
Newport vs Crawley Town
0:2
Aug 9, 2025 League Two
Crawley Town vs Newport
1:2
Apr 1, 2024 League Two
Newport vs Crawley Town
0:4
Sep 9, 2023 League Two
Crawley Town vs Newport
4:1
Jan 2, 2023 League Two
Newport vs Crawley Town
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Newport Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Crawley Town Compare

Top Goalscorer McKirdy H.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newport 50 / 100
Crawley Town 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newport Crawley Town

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Newport Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Newport's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Crawley Town's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

Difficult form: Crawley Town registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Newport VS Crawley Town
1.75 Goals Scored 0.63
2.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 50%
100% Over 2.5 25%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Newport

(Home)
01 Sept
Salford
2 : 1
Newport
29 Aug
Newport
2 : 2
Tranmere
22 Aug
Bristol Rovers
5 : 3
Newport
15 Aug
Newport
3 : 0
Rochdale
08 Aug
AFC Wimbledon
2 : 1
Newport
Page 1 of 6

Crawley Town

(Away)
01 Sept
Northampton
1 : 1
Crawley Town
29 Aug
Crawley Town
0 : 2
Bristol Rovers
22 Aug
Rochdale
1 : 2
Crawley Town
15 Aug
Crawley Town
0 : 1
Crewe
08 Aug
Watford
1 : 0
Crawley Town
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bromley 46 24 15 7 71:46 87
2 Milton Keynes Dons 46 24 14 8 86:45 86
3 Cambridge Utd 46 22 16 8 66:33 82
4 Salford 46 25 6 15 61:51 81
5 Notts County 46 24 8 14 74:52 80
6 Chesterfield 46 21 16 9 71:56 79
7 Grimsby 46 22 12 12 74:50 78
8 Barnet 46 21 13 12 70:53 76
9 Swindon 46 22 9 15 70:59 75
10 Oldham 46 18 14 14 60:44 68
11 Crewe 46 19 10 17 64:58 67
12 Colchester 46 18 12 16 62:49 66
13 Walsall 46 18 11 17 56:56 65
14 Bristol Rovers 46 19 5 22 56:65 62
15 Fleetwood Town 46 15 16 15 57:58 61
16 Accrington 46 14 11 21 47:58 53
17 Gillingham 46 13 14 19 53:72 53
18 Cheltenham 46 14 10 22 53:79 52
19 Shrewsbury 46 13 10 23 42:69 49
20 Newport 46 12 7 27 48:77 43
21 Tranmere 46 10 11 25 54:79 41
22 Crawley Town 46 8 16 22 44:68 40
23 Harrogate 46 10 9 27 39:68 39
24 Barrow 46 9 9 28 45:78 36
Promotion - League One (Main)
Promotion - League Two 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League (Main)