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Newroz vs Al Gharraf

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Neto Acara
(Penalty)
57' Event
Kuku K.
78'
Nadhim A.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Newroz and Al Gharraf finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Newroz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Newroz
35%
Draws
28%
Al Gharraf
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Newroz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Newroz come out ahead of Al Gharraf on wins alone.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Newroz taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Newroz Clean Sheet 68%
Al Gharraf Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newroz Al Gharraf
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 13 8
Draws 6 8
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.43 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 25, 2026 Stars League
Newroz vs Al Gharraf
2:1
Jan 10, 2026 Stars League
Al Gharraf vs Newroz
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Newroz Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Al Gharraf Compare

Top Goalscorer Kuku K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newroz 51 / 100
Al Gharraf 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newroz Al Gharraf

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newroz scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

Al Gharraf's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Newroz went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Newroz VS Al Gharraf
1.25 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Newroz

(Home)
14 Aug
Newroz
3 : 3
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
01 Jun
Al Naft
2 : 1
Newroz
27 May
Newroz
1 : 1
Al Mosul
20 May
Newroz
2 : 1
Zakho
16 May
Erbil
0 : 1
Newroz
Page 1 of 6

Al Gharraf

(Away)
16 Aug
Duhok
1 : 1
Al Gharraf
02 Jun
Al Gharraf
0 : 2
Naft Missan
27 May
Baghdad
1 : 3
Al Gharraf
19 May
Al Kahraba
2 : 2
Al Gharraf
15 May
Al Gharraf
2 : 2
Al Karkh
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)