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Newroz vs Al Minaa Prediction & H2H Stats

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Fri, Oct 16, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Newroz host Al Minaa in the Stars League. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Newroz have averaged 1.5 scored and 0.9 conceded recently, against Al Minaa's 1.03 scored and 1.28 conceded. Head-to-head, Newroz have won 4 to Al Minaa's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 13, 2026, ending 4:1. xG projections (1.31 - 0.75) back Newroz to edge this. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%
Newroz
35%
Draws
10%
Al Minaa
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Newroz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

55% / Medium Confidence
  • Newroz have won more games recently than Al Minaa.
  • 55% — that's where the model lands on Newroz taking it.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Newroz here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Newroz Clean Sheet 20%
Al Minaa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newroz Al Minaa
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 15 7
Draws 8 10
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 1.5 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 13, 2026 Stars League
Newroz vs Al Minaa
4:1
Jan 1, 2026 Stars League
Al Minaa vs Newroz
1:1
Apr 2, 2025 Stars League
Newroz vs Al Minaa
1:0
Feb 4, 2025 Stars League
Al Minaa vs Newroz
1:5
Apr 25, 2024 Stars League
Al Minaa vs Newroz
1:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newroz 85 / 100
Al Minaa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newroz Al Minaa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Newroz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newroz found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Newroz has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Al Minaa let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Newroz VS Al Minaa
1.75 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Newroz

(Home)
19 Sept
Ghaz Al Shamal
0 : 0
Newroz
14 Sept
Al Golan
0 : 2
Newroz
09 Sept
Newroz
3 : 0
Al Mosul
04 Sept
Naft Missan
0 : 2
Newroz
30 Aug
Newroz
0 : 0
Duhok
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Al Minaa

(Away)
18 Sept
Al Minaa
1 : 1
Duhok
13 Sept
Al Kahraba
2 : 1
Al Minaa
09 Sept
Al Minaa
1 : 1
Naft Missan
05 Sept
Al Minaa
0 : 3
Al Naft
31 Aug
Erbil
2 : 0
Al Minaa
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Karma 8 6 2 0 14:5 20
2 Al Zawraa 8 5 3 0 15:3 18
3 Erbil 8 5 2 1 12:3 17
4 Newroz 8 4 3 1 13:4 15
5 Al Shorta 8 4 3 1 9:4 15
6 Al Naft 8 4 3 1 9:5 15
7 Al Golan 8 2 4 2 8:9 10
8 Duhok 8 1 6 1 11:11 9
9 Diyala 8 2 3 3 13:14 9
10 Al Minaa 8 2 3 3 8:10 9
11 Zakho 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
12 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 8 1 5 2 11:12 8
13 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 1 5 2 4:5 8
14 Al Mosul 8 2 2 4 9:12 8
15 Al Karkh 8 2 1 5 10:14 7
16 Al Kahraba 8 1 4 3 6:10 7
17 Al Talaba 8 1 4 3 9:14 7
18 Naft Missan 8 1 4 3 6:11 7
19 Al Gharraf 8 1 2 5 4:12 5
20 Karbala 8 1 2 5 6:15 5
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)