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Newroz vs Al Shorta

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Saadoon M.
57' Event
Yahya A.
90' Event
Sambou B.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Newroz and Al Shorta finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Shorta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Newroz
35%
Draws
32%
Al Shorta
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Al Shorta carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Newroz's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Stars League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Newroz Clean Sheet 20%
Al Shorta Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newroz Al Shorta
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 15 18
Draws 8 9
Losses 7 4
Goals Scored 1.5 1.58
Goals Conceded 0.9 0.77
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2026 Stars League
Newroz vs Al Shorta
0:3
Sep 25, 2025 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Newroz
3:2
May 3, 2025 Stars League
Newroz vs Al Shorta
0:1
Jan 24, 2025 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Newroz
2:2
May 4, 2024 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Newroz
4:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Newroz Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Al Shorta Compare

Top Goalscorer Saadoon M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Yahya A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newroz 58 / 100
Al Shorta 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newroz Al Shorta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Newroz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Newroz scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 4.20 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Newroz remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Al Shorta's defensive record shows goals conceded in 48% of 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

Newroz VS Al Shorta
1.75 Goals Scored 0.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Newroz

(Home)
19 Sept
Ghaz Al Shamal
0 : 0
Newroz
14 Sept
Al Golan
0 : 2
Newroz
09 Sept
Newroz
3 : 0
Al Mosul
04 Sept
Naft Missan
0 : 2
Newroz
30 Aug
Newroz
0 : 0
Duhok
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Al Shorta

(Away)
19 Sept
Al Shorta
2 : 0
Al Kahraba
16 Sept
Al Shorta
1 : 0
Al Seeb
12 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Ghaz Al Shamal
08 Sept
Al Gharraf
1 : 2
Al Shorta
04 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Erbil
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)