Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Newry City vs Glenavon

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

NIFL Championship The Showgrounds, Newry
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Glenavon in this NIFL Championship matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Glenavon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Newry City
35%
Draws
32%
Glenavon
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Newry City have won more games recently than Glenavon.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Glenavon here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Newry City Clean Sheet 13%
Glenavon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newry City Glenavon
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 8
Draws 6 7
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.31 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.79 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 11, 2026 NIFL Championship
Newry City vs Glenavon
1:4
Nov 4, 2025 Irish League Cup
Newry City vs Glenavon
1:0
Apr 6, 2024 NIFL Premiership
Glenavon vs Newry City
3:2
Dec 26, 2023 NIFL Premiership
Newry City vs Glenavon
0:4
Nov 24, 2023 NIFL Premiership
Newry City vs Glenavon
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newry City 31 / 100
Glenavon 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newry City Glenavon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Glenavon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newry City scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Glenavon conceded in 90% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Newry City remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Newry City VS Glenavon
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Newry City

(Home)
11 Sept
Strabane Athletic
2 : 2
Newry City
04 Sept
Newry City
2 : 2
Armagh
29 Aug
Institute
1 : 3
Newry City
21 Aug
Newry City
0 : 3
Warrenpoint
15 Aug
Rathfriland Rangers
1 : 2
Newry City
Page 1 of 6

Glenavon

(Away)
12 Sept
Ballinamallard
1 : 1
Glenavon
05 Sept
Dundela
3 : 2
Glenavon
28 Aug
Glenavon
3 : 1
Rathfriland Rangers
22 Aug
Armagh
2 : 2
Glenavon
15 Aug
Glenavon
4 : 1
Strabane Athletic
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Newington FC 7 5 2 0 20:10 17
2 Queens University 7 5 1 1 18:5 16
3 Annagh 7 5 1 1 17:11 16
4 Harland & Wolff 7 5 0 2 14:7 15
5 Glenavon 7 3 2 2 17:12 11
6 Newry City 7 3 2 2 11:13 11
7 Warrenpoint 7 3 1 3 15:12 10
8 Ballinamallard 7 3 1 3 12:10 10
9 Ards 7 3 1 3 11:11 10
10 Institute 7 3 1 3 11:12 10
11 Loughgall 7 2 3 2 11:14 9
12 Dundela 7 1 4 2 15:17 7
13 Moyola 7 2 1 4 9:17 7
14 Strabane Athletic 7 1 1 5 8:18 4
15 Armagh 7 0 3 4 8:14 3
16 Rathfriland Rangers 7 0 0 7 5:19 0
Promotion - NIFL Championship (Promotion Group)
Relegation - NIFL Championship (Relegation Group)