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Newtown vs Llanuwchllyn - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

FAW Welsh Cup Latham Park, Newtown
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 1-0. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Llanuwchllyn have shipped 2.35 goals a game lately, while Newtown have conceded 1.42 and scored 1.87. Past meetings favor Newtown slightly — 1-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 28, 2026, ending 4:0. Model xG sits at 2.06 vs 0.88, favoring Newtown. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Newtown
15%
Draws
31%
Llanuwchllyn
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Newtown

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Newtown come out ahead of Llanuwchllyn on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Newtown's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Newtown have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Newtown, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Newtown Clean Sheet 20%
Llanuwchllyn Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newtown Llanuwchllyn
Matches Played 31 26
Wins 15 9
Draws 3 4
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1.87 1.69
Goals Conceded 1.42 2.35
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 28, 2026 Cymru North
Newtown vs Llanuwchllyn
4:0
Oct 19, 2024 FAW Welsh Cup
Llanuwchllyn vs Newtown
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newtown 40 / 100
Llanuwchllyn 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newtown Llanuwchllyn

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Newtown Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newtown's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Llanuwchllyn let in goals in 77% of their last 26 matches.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Newtown stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Newtown VS Llanuwchllyn
2 Goals Scored 1.5
0.25 Goals Conceded 2.13
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Newtown

(Home)
03 Oct
Mold Alexandra
1 : 2
Newtown
26 Sept
Newtown
0 : 1
Porthmadog
12 Sept
Holyhead
0 : 1
Newtown
05 Sept
Newtown
1 : 0
Denbigh
31 Aug
Bala
0 : 1
Newtown
Page 1 of 7

Llanuwchllyn

(Away)
03 Oct
Guilsfield
1 : 0
Llanuwchllyn
26 Sept
Llanuwchllyn
2 : 5
Caersws FC
12 Sept
Mold Alexandra
2 : 2
Llanuwchllyn
05 Sept
Llanuwchllyn
4 : 0
Holyhead
31 Aug
Llanuwchllyn
2 : 0
Gresford
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Airbus UK Broughton FC -
TNS -
Coedpoeth -
Guilsfield -
Llannefydd -
Llandudno FC -
Newtown -
Llanuwchllyn -
Bala -
Holyhead -
Connahs Q. -
Porthmadog -
Penycae FC -
Dolgellau Athletic -
Aberystwyth -
Prestatyn -
Flint Town -
Caernarfon -
Llay Welfare -
Holywell Town FC -
Buckley -
Colwyn Bay -
Brickfield Rangers -
Llangefni -
Denbigh -
Bangor 1876 -
Cefn Albion -
Felinheli -
Llysfaen -
Mochdre Sports -
Pontarddulais -
Goytre Utd -
Trefelin -
Llantwit Major -
Afan Lido -
Penybont -
Caerau Ely -
Llanelli -
Blaen-y-Maes -
Ely Rangers -
Radnor Valley -
Cardiff Draconians -
Barry Town -
Tredegar Town -
Cwmaman Institute -
Ammanford Town -
Llangennech -
Pontardawe -
Caerphilly -
Chepstow Town -
Evans Williams -
Rockspur -
Briton Ferry -
Afan United -
Llantwit Fardre -
Baglan Dragons -
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
Ynyshir Albions -
Cambrian United -
Trethomas Bluebirds -
Carmarthen Town -
Newport City -
Haverfordwest -
Cardiff Corries -
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Quarter-finals
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Semi-finals
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Final
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