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Nicaragua vs Costa Rica Prediction & H2H Stats

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League Estadio Nacional de Futbol, Managua
Fri, Oct 2, 2026
VS
02:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nicaragua host Costa Rica in the CONCACAF Nations League. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Costa Rica have shipped 1.48 goals a game lately, while Nicaragua have conceded 1.22 and scored 1.59. Head-to-head, Nicaragua have won 0 to Costa Rica's 3, with 2 draws. They last met on Oct 14, 2025, ending 4:1. xG projections (1.31 - 1.44) back Costa Rica to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Nicaragua
20%
Draws
40%
Costa Rica
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Costa Rica's 2.23 goals per match outpaces what Nicaragua have produced (1.59).
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular CONCACAF Nations League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Nicaragua Clean Sheet 16%
Costa Rica Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nicaragua Costa Rica
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 13 13
Draws 6 9
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.59 2.23
Goals Conceded 1.22 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 14, 2025 World Championship
Costa Rica vs Nicaragua
4:1
Sep 6, 2025 World Championship
Nicaragua vs Costa Rica
1:1
Jun 17, 2019 Gold Cup
Costa Rica vs Nicaragua
4:0
Jan 17, 2017 Copa Centroamericana
Costa Rica vs Nicaragua
0:0
Dec 16, 2015 Friendly International
Costa Rica vs Nicaragua
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nicaragua 30 / 100
Costa Rica 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nicaragua Costa Rica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nicaragua Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nicaragua found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (32 games).

Costa Rica's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Costa Rica's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Nicaragua VS Costa Rica
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
2 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Nicaragua

(Home)
25 Sept
Dominican Republic
3 : 2
Nicaragua
05 Jun
Paraguay
4 : 0
Nicaragua
29 May
South Africa
0 : 0
Nicaragua
27 Mar
Russia
3 : 1
Nicaragua
19 Nov
Haiti
2 : 0
Nicaragua
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Costa Rica

(Away)
25 Sept
Costa Rica
3 : 4
Curacao
10 Jun
England
3 : 0
Costa Rica
01 Jun
Colombia
3 : 1
Costa Rica
31 Mar
Costa Rica
0 : 5
Iran
27 Mar
Jordan
2 : 2
Costa Rica
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Curacao 2 2 0 0 10:4 6
2 Haiti 2 2 0 0 5:2 6
3 Dominican Republic 2 2 0 0 5:3 6
4 Trinidad & Tobago 2 0 0 2 3:5 0
5 Costa Rica 2 0 0 2 3:6 0
6 Nicaragua 2 0 0 2 3:9 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Nations League (League A - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 El Salvador 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
2 Jamaica 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
3 Suriname 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
4 Guatemala 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
5 Honduras 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
6 Martinique 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Nations League (League A - Play Offs)