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Stadium Background

Nice vs St Etienne

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Allianz Riviera, Nice
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Cardona I.
46'
Sub
Le Cardinal J. In: Nade M.
Out: Le Cardinal J.
46'
Sub
Cho M. In: Boudache K.
Out: Cho M.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 4-1, with Nice advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

14%
Nice
30%
Draws
56%
St Etienne
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: St Etienne

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • St Etienne carry the better recent record into this one.
  • St Etienne are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • St Etienne arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Nice, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Nice have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Nice Clean Sheet 10%
St Etienne Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nice St Etienne
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 9 16
Draws 11 4
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.13 1.89
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 29, 2026 Ligue 1
Nice vs St Etienne
4:1
May 26, 2026 Ligue 1
St Etienne vs Nice
0:0
Dec 21, 2025 Coupe de France
Nice vs St Etienne
2:1
Mar 1, 2025 Ligue 1
St Etienne vs Nice
1:3
Sep 20, 2024 Ligue 1
Nice vs St Etienne
8:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nice Compare

Top Goalscorer Wahi E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Clauss J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

St Etienne Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nice 10 / 100
St Etienne 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nice St Etienne

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick St Etienne Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

St Etienne let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

Nice has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Nice scored in 55% of their last 31 games.

Scoring Trends

Nice VS St Etienne
0.5 Goals Scored 2.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Nice

(Home)
12 Sept
Auxerre
1 : 0
Nice
05 Sept
Nice
1 : 1
Le Mans
30 Aug
Paris FC
3 : 0
Nice
22 Aug
Nice
0 : 0
Lorient
15 Aug
Hull City
0 : 0
Nice
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St Etienne

(Away)
12 Sept
Dunkerque
2 : 1
St Etienne
05 Sept
St Etienne
3 : 1
Montpellier
31 Aug
Dijon
2 : 3
St Etienne
22 Aug
St Etienne
4 : 0
Grenoble
14 Aug
St Etienne
3 : 1
Clermont
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Nice -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
St Etienne -
TBD -
Red Star 2
Rodez 3
Semi-finals
Nice -
TBD -
St Etienne 1
Rodez 0
Final
Nice 4
St Etienne 1