Sport Picks

Nigeria vs Madagascar Prediction & H2H Stats

Africa

Africa Cup of Nations Godswill Akpabio International Stadium, Uyo

Nigeria

2 - 1

Madagascar

Our Tip

Match Events

16'

Kari E.

Assist: Ponti R.

36'

Dupire G.

45'

Ilenikhena G.

Assist: Iwobi A.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. The second leg ended 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%

Nigeria

20%

Draws

33%

Madagascar

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Nigeria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence

Madagascar haven't matched Nigeria's recent run of results.
Model gives Nigeria a 47% chance of winning this.
Nigeria have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Nigeria, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
History favors Nigeria here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 41.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 19%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%

Nigeria Clean Sheet 68%

Madagascar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Nigeria	Madagascar
Matches Played	42	31
Wins	24	13
Draws	9	5
Losses	9	13
Goals Scored	1.69	1.26
Goals Conceded	0.93	1.32
Expected Goals (xG)	1.81	1.02
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 25, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations

Nigeria vs Madagascar

2:1

Jun 30, 2019 Africa Cup of Nations

Madagascar vs Nigeria

2:0

Sep 4, 2011 Africa Cup of Nations

Madagascar vs Nigeria

0:2

Sep 5, 2010 Africa Cup of Nations

Nigeria vs Madagascar

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nigeria Compare

Top Goalscorer Ilenikhena G.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Usor M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.39

Avg xA / game 0.91

Madagascar Compare

Top Goalscorer Kari E.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.93

Avg xA / game 0.57

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nigeria 95 / 100

Madagascar 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Nigeria Madagascar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nigeria Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 3:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Nigeria scored in 83% of their last 42 outings.

Madagascar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.25 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Nigeria remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Nigeria VS Madagascar

2.13 Goals Scored 1.17

0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5

75% Over 1.5 67%

63% Over 2.5 50%

50% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Nigeria

(Home)

25 Sept

Nigeria

2 : 1

Madagascar

10 Jun

Portugal

2 : 1

Nigeria

03 Jun

Poland

2 : 2

Nigeria

30 May

Jamaica

0 : 3

Nigeria

26 May

Nigeria

2 : 0

Zimbabwe

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Madagascar

(Away)

25 Sept

Nigeria

2 : 1

Madagascar

02 Jun

Morocco

4 : 0

Madagascar

31 Mar

Equatorial Guinea

1 : 1

Madagascar

28 Mar

Kyrgyzstan

2 : 5

Madagascar

17 Nov

Madagascar

2 : 0

Equatorial Guinea

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