Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Niteroiense vs AA Carapebus

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

54' Event
Felipe Affonso
82' Event
Rozario Rodrigues M. D.

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B1 2025 game between Niteroiense and AA Carapebus finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AA Carapebus.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%
Niteroiense
35%
Draws
10%
AA Carapebus
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Niteroiense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

55% / Medium Confidence
  • Niteroiense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Niteroiense are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Carioca B1 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Niteroiense Clean Sheet 68%
AA Carapebus Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Niteroiense AA Carapebus
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 14 9
Draws 9 6
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.59 1.15
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.22
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2025 Carioca B1
Niteroiense vs AA Carapebus
0:2
Oct 13, 2024 Carioca B2
Niteroiense vs AA Carapebus
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Niteroiense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

AA Carapebus Compare

Top Goalscorer Felipe Affonso
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rozario Rodrigues M. D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Niteroiense 95 / 100
AA Carapebus 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Niteroiense AA Carapebus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Niteroiense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Niteroiense's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Solid form: Niteroiense remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

AA Carapebus let in goals in 63% of their last 27 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Niteroiense VS AA Carapebus
1.75 Goals Scored 0.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Niteroiense

(Home)
19 Sept
Niteroiense
1 : 0
Nova Cidade
12 Sept
Goncalense
1 : 1
Niteroiense
05 Sept
Niteroiense
2 : 0
Serrano FC
08 Nov
Niteroiense
5 : 1
Paduano EC
05 Nov
Niteroiense
0 : 0
Duque de Caxias
Page 1 of 6

AA Carapebus

(Away)
19 Sept
Artsul
0 : 0
AA Carapebus
11 Sept
AA Carapebus
1 : 4
Duque de Caxias
05 Sept
Campo Grande
1 : 0
AA Carapebus
08 Nov
AA Carapebus
0 : 2
Duque de Caxias
05 Nov
AA Carapebus
1 : 1
Bonsucesso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bonsucesso 11 6 4 1 14:7 22
2 Sao Cristovao 11 5 4 2 14:8 19
3 Serrano FC 11 5 3 3 14:11 18
4 Duque de Caxias 11 5 3 3 10:9 18
5 Niteroiense 11 4 4 3 16:14 16
6 Goncalense 11 5 1 5 11:9 16
7 Nova Cidade 11 4 4 3 9:9 16
8 Campo Grande 11 3 6 2 9:8 15
9 Artsul 11 3 4 4 11:10 13
10 AA Carapebus 11 3 3 5 6:13 12
11 Paduano EC 11 3 1 7 12:18 10
12 Friburguense 11 1 1 9 3:13 4
Promotion - Carioca B1 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2025 (Main)