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Niteroiense vs AA Carapebus

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

54' Event
Felipe Affonso
82' Event
Rozario Rodrigues M. D.

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B1 2025 game between Niteroiense and AA Carapebus finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AA Carapebus.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Niteroiense
6%
Draws
4%
AA Carapebus
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Niteroiense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Niteroiense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Niteroiense are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Carioca B1 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Niteroiense Clean Sheet 68%
AA Carapebus Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Niteroiense AA Carapebus
Matches Played 30 24
Wins 15 9
Draws 9 5
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 1.25 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2025 Carioca B1
Niteroiense vs AA Carapebus
0:2
Oct 13, 2024 Carioca B2
Niteroiense vs AA Carapebus
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Niteroiense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

AA Carapebus Compare

Top Goalscorer Felipe Affonso
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rozario Rodrigues M. D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Niteroiense 95 / 100
AA Carapebus 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Niteroiense AA Carapebus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NIT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Niteroiense's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: AA Carapebus conceded in 63% of 24 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Niteroiense has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Niteroiense VS AA Carapebus
1.25 Goals Scored 0.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Niteroiense

(Home)
08 Nov
Niteroiense
5 : 1
Paduano EC
05 Nov
Niteroiense
0 : 0
Duque de Caxias
01 Nov
Friburguense
0 : 1
Niteroiense
24 Oct
Campo Grande
1 : 1
Niteroiense
18 Oct
Niteroiense
2 : 3
Bonsucesso
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AA Carapebus

(Away)
08 Nov
AA Carapebus
0 : 2
Duque de Caxias
05 Nov
AA Carapebus
1 : 1
Bonsucesso
01 Nov
Campo Grande
0 : 1
AA Carapebus
25 Oct
Artsul
3 : 1
AA Carapebus
18 Oct
AA Carapebus
0 : 0
Serrano FC
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Bonsucesso1164114:722
2Sao Cristovao1154214:819
3Serrano FC1153314:1118
4Duque de Caxias1153310:918
5Niteroiense1144316:1416
6Goncalense1151511:916
7Nova Cidade114439:916
8Campo Grande113629:815
9Artsul1134411:1013
10AA Carapebus113356:1312
11Paduano EC1131712:1810
12Friburguense111193:134
Promotion - Carioca B1 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2025 (Main)