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Niteroiense vs Paduano EC

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Dias P.
32' Event
Davi Santos
49' Event
Leo Itaperuna

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B1 2025 game between Niteroiense and Paduano EC finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Niteroiense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Niteroiense
20%
Draws
28%
Paduano EC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Niteroiense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Niteroiense come out ahead of Paduano EC on wins alone.
  • Niteroiense are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Niteroiense Clean Sheet 68%
Paduano EC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Niteroiense Paduano EC
Matches Played 29 24
Wins 14 10
Draws 9 3
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.62 0.92
Goals Conceded 1.17 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 8, 2025 Carioca B1
Niteroiense vs Paduano EC
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Niteroiense Compare

Top Goalscorer Davi Santos
1 Goals
Assists Leader Leo Itaperuna
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Paduano EC Compare

Top Goalscorer Dias P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Niteroiense 95 / 100
Paduano EC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Niteroiense Paduano EC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Niteroiense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Niteroiense scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 6.00 goals when they meet.

Niteroiense has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Paduano EC has conceded goals in 63% of their last 24 outings.

Scoring Trends

Niteroiense VS Paduano EC
1.88 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Niteroiense

(Home)
05 Sept
Niteroiense
2 : 0
Serrano FC
08 Nov
Niteroiense
5 : 1
Paduano EC
05 Nov
Niteroiense
0 : 0
Duque de Caxias
01 Nov
Friburguense
0 : 1
Niteroiense
24 Oct
Campo Grande
1 : 1
Niteroiense
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Paduano EC

(Away)
06 Sept
Paduano EC
1 : 0
Santa Cruz RJ
30 Aug
Cardoso Moreira
1 : 0
Paduano EC
08 Nov
Niteroiense
5 : 1
Paduano EC
05 Nov
Paduano EC
2 : 0
Friburguense
01 Nov
Sao Cristovao
2 : 0
Paduano EC
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bonsucesso 11 6 4 1 14:7 22
2 Sao Cristovao 11 5 4 2 14:8 19
3 Serrano FC 11 5 3 3 14:11 18
4 Duque de Caxias 11 5 3 3 10:9 18
5 Niteroiense 11 4 4 3 16:14 16
6 Goncalense 11 5 1 5 11:9 16
7 Nova Cidade 11 4 4 3 9:9 16
8 Campo Grande 11 3 6 2 9:8 15
9 Artsul 11 3 4 4 11:10 13
10 AA Carapebus 11 3 3 5 6:13 12
11 Paduano EC 11 3 1 7 12:18 10
12 Friburguense 11 1 1 9 3:13 4
Promotion - Carioca B1 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2025 (Main)