Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nocerina vs Ischia

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Montanino R.
42' Event
Cardella F.
(Penalty)
45' Event
Gningue O.

AI Match Summary

Nocerina in this Serie D - Group H matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nocerina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Nocerina
20%
Draws
23%
Ischia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Nocerina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Nocerina haven't matched Ischia's recent run of results.
  • Nocerina are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Nocerina Clean Sheet 68%
Ischia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nocerina Ischia
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 11
Draws 12 6
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.03 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Nocerina vs Ischia
3:2
May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group G
Nocerina vs Ischia
0:1
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group G
Ischia vs Nocerina
2:1
Feb 23, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Nocerina vs Ischia
1:0
Nov 6, 2024 Coppa Italia Serie D
Nocerina vs Ischia
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nocerina Compare

Top Goalscorer Cardella F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Stefanelli F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Ischia Compare

Top Goalscorer Montanino R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gningue O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nocerina 86 / 100
Ischia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nocerina Ischia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nocerina Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Ischia conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Nocerina scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Nocerina stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nocerina VS Ischia
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nocerina

(Home)
20 Sept
Bisceglie
3 : 1
Nocerina
16 Sept
Nocerina
3 : 2
Ischia
12 Sept
Manfredonia
2 : 2
Nocerina
06 Sept
Nocerina
2 : 1
Ebolitana
11 Aug
Nocerina
3 : 0
Gelbison
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Ischia

(Away)
20 Sept
Ischia
1 : 2
A.C.D. Nardo
16 Sept
Nocerina
3 : 2
Ischia
12 Sept
Ischia
2 : 2
Real Normanna
06 Sept
Francavilla
1 : 0
Ischia
13 Aug
Giugliano
0 : 1
Ischia
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Virtus Francavilla 4 4 0 0 8:3 12
2 Bisceglie 4 3 0 1 8:4 9
3 Gravina 4 2 2 0 8:4 8
4 Turris 4 2 2 0 6:4 8
5 Real Normanna 4 2 1 1 9:7 7
6 Real Forio 2014 4 2 1 1 8:6 7
7 Nocerina 4 2 1 1 8:8 7
8 Martina Calcio 4 2 0 2 8:7 6
9 San Felice Gladiator 4 2 0 2 7:8 6
10 Manfredonia 4 1 2 1 7:5 5
11 A.C.D. Nardo 4 1 2 1 3:4 5
12 Palmese 1914 4 1 1 2 5:7 4
13 Melfi 4 1 1 2 2:4 4
14 Ebolitana 4 1 1 2 4:7 4
15 Francavilla 4 1 0 3 3:5 3
16 Brindisi 4 1 0 3 4:8 3
17 Ischia 4 0 1 3 5:8 1
18 Fidelis Andria 4 0 1 3 4:8 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group H (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H (Play Out)