Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nocerina vs Matera

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Bollino M.
(Penalty)
68' Event
Di Piazza M.
(Penalty)
75' Event
Felleca F.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Nocerina
35%
Draws
47%
Matera
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Matera

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Nocerina at 1.13 per game, Matera at 0.
  • Model gives Matera a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.8%
Nocerina Clean Sheet 18%
Matera Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nocerina Matera
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 10 10
Draws 14 10
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.13 0
Goals Conceded 1.63 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Matera vs Nocerina
2:2
Dec 22, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Nocerina vs Matera
2:2
Mar 19, 2023 Serie D - Group H
Matera vs Nocerina
2:1
Nov 13, 2022 Serie D - Group H
Nocerina vs Matera
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nocerina Compare

Top Goalscorer Felleca F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Matera Compare

Top Goalscorer Di Piazza M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nocerina 28 / 100
Matera 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nocerina Matera

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAT Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Matera's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.75 goals as a typical output.

Nocerina's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Recent resilience: Nocerina stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nocerina VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
1.63 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Nocerina

(Home)
03 May
Nocerina
0 : 1
Ischia
26 Apr
Monastir
1 : 0
Nocerina
19 Apr
Nocerina
1 : 1
Flaminia
12 Apr
Atl. Lodigiani
0 : 0
Nocerina
02 Apr
Nocerina
0 : 0
Latte Dolce
Page 1 of 7

Matera

(Away)
04 May
Matera
2 : 2
Nocerina
27 Apr
ASD Ugento
1 : 4
Matera
17 Apr
Matera
3 : 1
Angri
13 Apr
Matera
2 : 2
Virtus Francavilla
06 Apr
Costa Amalfi
4 : 2
Matera
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Casarano 34 21 11 2 72:30 74
2 Nocerina 34 20 10 4 64:27 70
3 Martina Calcio 34 17 11 6 48:28 62
4 Fidelis Andria 34 16 9 9 41:29 57
5 Citta di Fasano 34 13 11 10 45:32 50
6 Matera 34 12 13 9 51:47 49
7 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 11 11 41:34 47
8 A.C.D. Nardo 34 13 8 13 47:45 47
9 Ischia 34 11 12 11 39:45 45
10 Palmese 1914 34 10 12 12 41:45 42
11 Gravina 34 11 9 14 43:46 42
12 Francavilla 34 11 8 15 28:34 41
13 Acerrana 34 11 8 15 37:50 41
14 ASD Ugento 34 10 7 17 33:51 37
15 Manfredonia 34 8 11 15 33:51 35
16 Brindisi 34 9 14 11 44:43 27
17 Angri 34 6 8 20 35:69 26
18 Costa Amalfi 34 3 11 20 26:62 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 (Play Out)