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Nogueirense vs Uniao Da Serra - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Nabais I.
39' Event
Rosa S.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Nogueirense
35%
Draws
42%
Uniao Da Serra
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Uniao Da Serra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Uniao Da Serra lately — more wins on the board than Nogueirense.
  • Model gives Uniao Da Serra a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Nogueirense Clean Sheet 15%
Uniao Da Serra Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nogueirense Uniao Da Serra
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 13
Draws 9 9
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 1.14 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.52
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Nogueirense vs Uniao Da Serra
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nogueirense Compare

Top Goalscorer Rosa S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Uniao Da Serra Compare

Top Goalscorer Nabais I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.38
Avg xA / game 0.84

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nogueirense 15 / 100
Uniao Da Serra 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nogueirense Uniao Da Serra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Uniao Da Serra Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nogueirense scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Uniao Da Serra has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Nogueirense stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nogueirense VS Uniao Da Serra
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.67 Goals Conceded 1
83% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nogueirense

(Home)
13 Sept
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 3
Nogueirense
06 Sept
Nogueirense
1 : 1
Uniao Da Serra
30 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 3
Naval 1893
23 Aug
Fazendense
3 : 3
Nogueirense
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1
Sertanense
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Uniao Da Serra

(Away)
20 Sept
Amora
3 : 4
Uniao Da Serra
13 Sept
Uniao Da Serra
1 : 1
Mortagua FC
06 Sept
Nogueirense
1 : 1
Uniao Da Serra
30 Aug
Uniao Da Serra
5 : 0
Uniao de Pombal
23 Aug
Uniao Da Serra
2 : 1
Alverca B
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mortagua FC 4 3 1 0 9:4 10
2 O Elvas CAD 4 3 1 0 6:2 10
3 Oliveira Hospital 4 3 0 1 6:4 9
4 Os Marialvas 4 3 0 1 8:2 9
5 Uniao Da Serra 4 2 2 0 6:4 8
6 Naval 1893 4 2 0 2 6:4 6
7 Nogueirense 4 1 3 0 8:7 6
8 SB Castelo Branco 4 2 0 2 7:9 6
9 Fatima 4 1 1 2 6:5 4
10 Malveira 4 1 1 2 4:7 4
11 Alverca B 4 1 0 3 6:4 3
12 Sertanense 4 0 2 2 3:7 2
13 Fazendense 4 0 1 3 5:12 1
14 GD Os Nazarenos 4 0 0 4 1:10 0
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)