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Noia vs Alondras

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Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Diz R.
12' Event
Pereira J.
39'
Pineiro A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 game between Noia and Alondras finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Noia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Noia
15%
Draws
57%
Alondras
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alondras

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Alondras carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Alondras are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 79.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Noia Clean Sheet 13%
Alondras Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Noia Alondras
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 5 12
Draws 6 7
Losses 19 10
Goals Scored 0.77 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.73 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.40 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Noia vs Alondras
2:1
Sep 13, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Alondras vs Noia
1:0
Mar 30, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Noia vs Alondras
1:2
Nov 17, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Alondras vs Noia
0:0
Feb 13, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Alondras vs Noia
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Noia Compare

Top Goalscorer Diz R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pineiro M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.7

Alondras Compare

Top Goalscorer Pereira J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Noia 14 / 100
Alondras 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Noia Alondras

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alondras Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alondras has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Noia's goal record stands at 47% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Noia has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Noia VS Alondras
1.29 Goals Scored 1.38
2 Goals Conceded 1.5
71% Over 1.5 88%
57% Over 2.5 50%
29% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Noia

(Home)
10 May
Noia
1 : 5
Gran Pena
03 May
Silva SD
5 : 2
Noia
25 Apr
Noia
3 : 0
Celtiga
19 Apr
Cambados
0 : 3
Noia
12 Apr
Noia
0 : 2
CD Boiro
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Alondras

(Away)
26 Sept
Atletico Arteixo
2 : 4
Alondras
20 Sept
Alondras
2 : 0
Sarriana
13 Sept
Antela
0 : 2
Alondras
05 Sept
Alondras
2 : 6
Pontevedra B
10 May
Barbadas-Bentraces
0 : 2
Alondras
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arosa SC 34 20 10 4 58:35 70
2 Compostela 34 19 11 4 55:28 68
3 Atletico Arteixo 34 16 10 8 54:44 58
4 Estradense 34 14 11 9 46:33 53
5 Racing Club Villalbes 34 13 13 8 36:29 52
6 Gran Pena 34 13 12 9 57:42 51
7 Somozas 34 13 12 9 37:32 51
8 CD Boiro 34 13 12 9 45:29 51
9 Lugo B 34 12 12 10 41:35 48
10 Montaneros 34 12 12 10 48:42 48
11 Barco 34 13 7 14 35:41 46
12 Alondras 34 12 9 13 45:48 45
13 Celtiga 34 11 7 16 47:48 40
14 Viveiro 34 9 11 14 27:41 38
15 Silva SD 34 9 9 16 36:48 36
16 Cambados 34 4 14 16 24:43 26
17 Noia 34 6 7 21 28:57 25
18 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 4 7 23 25:69 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Play Offs)