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Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangmai United - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Thailand Thailand

Thai League 2
Wed, Oct 14, 2026
VS
11:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nong Bua Pitchaya host Chiangmai United in the Thai League 2. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Nong Bua Pitchaya have averaged 1.77 scored and 1.93 conceded recently, against Chiangmai United's 1.58 scored and 1.65 conceded. Past meetings favor Nong Bua Pitchaya slightly — 4-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 18, 2026, ending 3:0. xG projections (1.25 - 1.69) back Nong Bua Pitchaya to edge this. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Nong Bua Pitchaya
15%
Draws
48%
Chiangmai United
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Chiangmai United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Chiangmai United haven't matched Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Nong Bua Pitchaya here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Nong Bua Pitchaya Clean Sheet 13%
Chiangmai United Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nong Bua Pitchaya Chiangmai United
Matches Played 30 26
Wins 14 11
Draws 4 0
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1.77 1.58
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.65
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Thai League 2
Chiangmai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya
3:0
Dec 13, 2025 Thai League 2
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangmai United
1:0
Jan 28, 2024 Thai League 2
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangmai United
2:1
Sep 16, 2023 Thai League 2
Chiangmai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya
1:3
Mar 20, 2022 Thai League 1
Chiangmai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nong Bua Pitchaya 31 / 100
Chiangmai United 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nong Bua Pitchaya Chiangmai United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nong Bua Pitchaya found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).

Chiangmai United let in goals in 85% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Nong Bua Pitchaya went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nong Bua Pitchaya VS Chiangmai United
1.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 50%
88% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nong Bua Pitchaya

(Home)
19 Sept
Nong Bua Pitchaya
4 : 3
Satun FC
16 Sept
Uttaradit FC
2 : 2
Nong Bua Pitchaya
12 Sept
Muang Thong Utd
2 : 1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
06 Sept
Nong Bua Pitchaya
2 : 0
Kasetsart
23 May
Pattani
3 : 1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
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Chiangmai United

(Away)
19 Sept
Muang Thong Utd
1 : 0
Chiangmai United
15 Sept
Chiangmai United
3 : 1
Khonkaen United
12 Sept
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1 : 2
Chiangmai United
05 Sept
Chiangmai United
0 : 1
Pattaya United
25 Apr
Kasetsart
3 : 4
Chiangmai United
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Khonkaen United 4 3 0 1 7:3 9
2 Uttaradit FC 4 2 2 0 8:5 8
3 Muang Loei Utd 4 2 1 1 6:2 7
4 Nong Bua Pitchaya 4 2 1 1 9:7 7
5 Phrae United 5 2 1 2 6:6 7
6 Chainat Hornbill 4 2 1 1 5:5 7
7 Muang Thong Utd 4 2 1 1 3:4 7
8 Satun FC 4 2 0 2 11:9 6
9 Kanchanaburi 5 1 3 1 7:6 6
10 Chiangmai United 4 2 0 2 5:4 6
11 Police Tero 4 2 0 2 4:5 6
12 Songkhla 4 1 2 1 6:5 5
13 Chanthaburi 4 1 1 2 5:5 4
14 Nakhon Pathom 4 0 4 0 3:3 4
15 Pattaya United 4 1 1 2 1:6 4
16 Mahasarakham 4 0 3 1 3:6 3
17 Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4 0 2 2 5:7 2
18 Kasetsart 4 0 1 3 0:6 1
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