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Nordstrand vs Baerum

Norway Norway

Division 3 - Group 1
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nordstrand play Baerum in the Division 3 - Group 1. It looks like a close match. Recently, Nordstrand averaged 2.4 goals scored and 2.13 conceded. Baerum averaged 2.76 goals scored and 2 conceded. In past meetings, Nordstrand won 2, Baerum won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 18, 2026 ended 1:5. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.81 for Nordstrand and 2.44 for Baerum. This points to a Nordstrand double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Nordstrand
23%
Draws
36%
Baerum
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Nordstrand

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Nordstrand picked up more points recently compared to Baerum.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.81 vs 2.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 84%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 97%
Over 2.5 Goals 84%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Nordstrand Clean Sheet 10%
Baerum Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 87%
Second Half Goal 92%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nordstrand Baerum
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 12
Draws 2 7
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 2.4 2.76
Goals Conceded 2.13 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Division 3 - Group 1
Nordstrand vs Baerum
1:5
Feb 8, 2025 OBOS Supercup
Nordstrand vs Baerum
2:1
Aug 31, 2024 Division 3 - Group 3
Baerum vs Nordstrand
3:3
May 25, 2024 Division 3 - Group 3
Nordstrand vs Baerum
2:2
Jul 24, 2021 NM Cup
Nordstrand vs Baerum
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nordstrand Compare

Top Goalscorer Aljenki O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Baerum Compare

Top Goalscorer Jansson O.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Bransdal L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nordstrand 39 / 100
Baerum 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nordstrand Baerum

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Nordstrand or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +24.2%
3.03
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +7.5%
1.28
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Nordstrand attacking → ← attacking Baerum

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nordstrand scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Baerum let in goals in 90% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.80 goals.

Nordstrand went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Baerum lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 43
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 2.75
2.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.13