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North Carolina Courage W vs San Diego Wave W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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NWSL Women WakeMed Soccer Park, Cary, NC
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AI Match Summary

North Carolina Courage W host San Diego Wave W in the NWSL Women. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Recent numbers: North Carolina Courage W at 1.9 goals for, 1.34 against; San Diego Wave W at 1.55 for, 1.07 against. Past meetings favor North Carolina Courage W slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 12, 2026, ending 2:1. The numbers (1.81 xG vs 1.63) point toward San Diego Wave W. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
North Carolina Courage W
15%
Draws
57%
San Diego Wave W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: San Diego Wave W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • San Diego Wave W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on North Carolina Courage W taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
North Carolina Courage W Clean Sheet 14%
San Diego Wave W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric North Carolina Courage W San Diego Wave W
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 18
Draws 3 3
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.9 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 NWSL Women
San Diego Wave W vs North Carolina Courage W
2:1
Aug 2, 2025 NWSL Women
North Carolina Courage W vs San Diego Wave W
0:0
May 26, 2025 NWSL Women
San Diego Wave W vs North Carolina Courage W
5:2
Oct 5, 2024 NWSL Women
North Carolina Courage W vs San Diego Wave W
2:1
Sep 9, 2024 NWSL Women
San Diego Wave W vs North Carolina Courage W
1:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

North Carolina Courage W 35 / 100
San Diego Wave W 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
North Carolina Courage W San Diego Wave W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

North Carolina Courage W's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Defensive concern: San Diego Wave W conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

North Carolina Courage W went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

North Carolina Courage W VS San Diego Wave W
2.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

North Carolina Courage W

(Home)
03 Oct
Seattle Reign W
0 : 1
North Carolina Courage W
27 Sept
Utah Royals W
2 : 1
North Carolina Courage W
19 Sept
North Carolina Courage W
1 : 2
Gotham FC W
12 Sept
San Diego Wave W
2 : 1
North Carolina Courage W
06 Sept
Chicago Stars W
0 : 6
North Carolina Courage W
Page 1 of 6

San Diego Wave W

(Away)
03 Oct
Orlando Pride W
1 : 2
San Diego Wave W
25 Sept
Racing Louisville W
0 : 2
San Diego Wave W
19 Sept
San Diego Wave W
2 : 0
Kansas City Current W
12 Sept
San Diego Wave W
2 : 1
North Carolina Courage W
07 Sept
Seattle Reign W
1 : 0
San Diego Wave W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gotham FC W 27 16 7 4 35:21 55
2 San Diego Wave W 27 16 3 8 40:28 51
3 Washington Spirit W 27 15 4 8 39:26 49
4 Utah Royals W 27 14 4 9 44:35 46
5 Kansas City Current W 27 13 5 9 48:38 44
6 Angel City W 27 12 7 8 45:29 43
7 Portland Thorns FC W 27 12 7 8 45:39 43
8 North Carolina Courage W 27 13 3 11 50:39 42
9 Seattle Reign W 27 12 4 11 33:32 40
10 Denver Summit W 27 10 8 9 45:37 38
11 Orlando Pride W 27 10 3 14 36:43 33
12 Houston Dash W 27 8 6 13 34:39 30
13 Boston Legacy W 27 8 5 14 36:46 29
14 Bay FC W 27 7 5 15 28:42 26
15 Racing Louisville W 27 7 3 17 36:52 24
16 Chicago Stars W 27 5 2 20 15:63 17
Promotion - NWSL Women (Play Offs)