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North Geelong Warriors vs Port Melbourne Sharks

Australia Australia

Victoria Premier League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

North Geelong Warriors play Port Melbourne Sharks in the Victoria Premier League. It looks like a close match. Recently, North Geelong Warriors averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.88 conceded. Port Melbourne Sharks averaged 0.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. In past meetings, North Geelong Warriors won 1, Port Melbourne Sharks won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jul 4, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.13 for North Geelong Warriors and 1.19 for Port Melbourne Sharks. This points to a North Geelong Warriors double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
North Geelong Warriors
6%
Draws
4%
Port Melbourne Sharks
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: North Geelong Warriors

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • North Geelong Warriors has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Port Melbourne Sharks.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for North Geelong Warriors.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Victoria Premier League provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
North Geelong Warriors Clean Sheet 20%
Port Melbourne Sharks Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric North Geelong Warriors Port Melbourne Sharks
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 3
Draws 4 8
Losses 14 18
Goals Scored 1.75 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.88 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Victoria Premier League
North Geelong Warriors vs Port Melbourne Sharks
1:1
Mar 21, 2026 Victoria Premier League
Port Melbourne Sharks vs North Geelong Warriors
0:2
May 27, 2023 NPL Victoria
Port Melbourne Sharks vs North Geelong Warriors
4:0
Feb 25, 2023 NPL Victoria
North Geelong Warriors vs Port Melbourne Sharks
0:2
Jun 17, 2017 NPL Victoria
Port Melbourne Sharks vs North Geelong Warriors
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

North Geelong Warriors Compare

Top Goalscorer Chapman A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Port Melbourne Sharks Compare

Top Goalscorer Alexiou A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

North Geelong Warriors 85 / 100
Port Melbourne Sharks 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
North Geelong Warriors Port Melbourne Sharks

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NOR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

North Geelong Warriors scored in 90% of their last 29 games.

Port Melbourne Sharks let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

North Geelong Warriors went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Port Melbourne Sharks lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

North Geelong Warriors VS Port Melbourne Sharks
1.75 Goals Scored 0.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Melbourne Knights20132535:1641
2Northcote City20123534:2039
3Brunswick Juventus20130740:3039
4Melbourne Victory U212094748:3531
5Eltham Redbacks2094748:3531
6Bulleen1985632:2629
7Melbourne Srbija1992824:2229
8Manningham United Blues2092934:3829
9North Geelong Warriors1991933:3728
10Western United U2120811142:5025
11Brunswick City19721035:4123
12Langwarrin2065936:4523
13North Sunshine Eagles20531228:3618
14Port Melbourne Sharks20241410:4810