Sport Picks

Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 National Arena Toshe Proeski

North Macedonia

1 - 0

Latvia

Our Tip

Match Events

24'

Sub

Elmas E. In: Qamili L.

Out: Elmas E.

30'

Savalnieks R.

53'

Serafimov N.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

North Macedonia in this UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored North Macedonia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

North Macedonia

Draws

90%

Latvia

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Latvia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Latvia haven't matched North Macedonia's recent run of results.
90% — that's where the model lands on Latvia taking it.
European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
History favors North Macedonia here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%

North Macedonia Clean Sheet 20%

Latvia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	North Macedonia	Latvia
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	10	6
Draws	11	7
Losses	9	17
Goals Scored	1	0.63
Goals Conceded	1.75	1.5
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 13, 2025 Friendly International

North Macedonia vs Latvia

Possession: 41% - 42% Cards: 1 - 4

0:0

Nov 14, 2024 UEFA Nations League

North Macedonia vs Latvia

Possession: 54% - 47% Cards: 4 - 0

1:0

Oct 10, 2024 UEFA Nations League

Latvia vs North Macedonia

Possession: 52% - 46% Cards: 3 - 2

0:3

Sep 9, 2019 Euro

Latvia vs North Macedonia

Possession: 46% - 46% Cards: 1 - 4

0:2

Mar 21, 2019 Euro

North Macedonia vs Latvia

Possession: 57% - 59% Cards: 4 - 2

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

North Macedonia Compare

Top Goalscorer Serafimov N.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Latvia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57

Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

North Macedonia 10 / 100

Latvia 95 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

North Macedonia Latvia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LAT Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: North Macedonia scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Latvia has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Latvia lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

North Macedonia VS Latvia

1 Goals Scored 0.63

1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5

63% Over 1.5 50%

50% Over 2.5 38%

38% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sweden	6	5	1	0	19:4	16
2	Slovakia	6	4	1	1	10:5	13
3	Estonia	6	1	1	4	3:9	4
4	Azerbaijan	6	0	1	5	3:17	1

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Romania	6	6	0	18:3	18
2	Kosovo	6	4	2	10:7	12
3	Cyprus	6	2	4	4:15	6
4	Lithuania	6	0	6	4:11	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Northern Ireland	6	3	2	1	11:3	11
2	Bulgaria	6	2	3	1	3:6	9
3	Belarus	6	1	4	1	3:4	7
4	Luxembourg	6	0	3	3	3:7	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	North Macedonia	6	5	1	0	10:1	16
2	Armenia	6	2	1	3	8:9	7
3	Faroe Islands	6	1	3	2	5:6	6
4	Latvia	6	1	1	4	4:11	4