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North Queensland vs Moreton Bay Utd

Australia Australia

NPL Queensland 2016
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

North Queensland play Moreton Bay Utd in the NPL Queensland 2016. Moreton Bay Utd are favorites here. Recently, North Queensland averaged 1.2 goals scored and 3 conceded. Moreton Bay Utd averaged 2 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. In past meetings, North Queensland won 0, Moreton Bay Utd won 4, and they drew 1. Their last match on Aug 20, 2016 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.17 for North Queensland and 1.55 for Moreton Bay Utd. This points to a Moreton Bay Utd double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

14%
North Queensland
18%
Draws
68%
Moreton Bay Utd
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Moreton Bay Utd

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • North Queensland picked up more points recently compared to Moreton Bay Utd.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.17 vs 1.55 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 76%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 91%
Over 2.5 Goals 76%
Over 3.5 Goals 46%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66%
North Queensland Clean Sheet 15%
Moreton Bay Utd Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 82%
Second Half Goal 86%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric North Queensland Moreton Bay Utd
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 3 17
Draws 5 6
Losses 22 10
Goals Scored 1.2 2
Goals Conceded 3 1.21

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 20, 2016 NPL Queensland
Moreton Bay Utd vs North Queensland
1:1
May 21, 2016 NPL Queensland
North Queensland vs Moreton Bay Utd
1:3
Aug 22, 2015 NPL Queensland
Moreton Bay Utd vs North Queensland
4:0
May 23, 2015 NPL Queensland
North Queensland vs Moreton Bay Utd
2:3
Aug 2, 2014 NPL Queensland
Moreton Bay Utd vs North Queensland
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

North Queensland Compare

Top Goalscorer Slaney C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Moreton Bay Utd Compare

Top Goalscorer Farina J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Stewart S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

North Queensland 16 / 100
Moreton Bay Utd 64 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
North Queensland Moreton Bay Utd

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Moreton Bay Utd Win (2)
Secondary Pick Moreton Bay Utd & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +133.4%
16.67
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.7%
1.43
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

North Queensland attacking → ← attacking Moreton Bay Utd

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

North Queensland scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Moreton Bay Utd let in goals in 76% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

North Queensland went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Moreton Bay Utd lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

14 Points in last 5 57
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Brisbane Strikers22145351:1947
2Gold Coast City22127358:2943
3Cairns22133642:2742
4Redlands22121941:3637
5Brisbane City2298535:2835
6Olympic FC221111045:4634
7Moreton Bay Utd2278736:3229
8SWQ Thunder22821238:5726
9Brisbane Roar U2122741130:3825
10Western Pride22661038:4324
11Sunshine Coast22731232:4524
12North Queensland22041822:734