Sport Picks

Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 Windsor Park

Belarus

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Northern Ireland play Belarus in the UEFA Nations League 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Northern Ireland averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Belarus averaged 1.18 goals scored and 1.54 conceded. In past meetings, Northern Ireland won 4, Belarus won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Nov 15, 2024 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Northern Ireland and 1.00 for Belarus. This points to a Northern Ireland double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%

Northern Ireland

24%

Draws

33%

Belarus

Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Northern Ireland

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence

Northern Ireland picked up more points recently compared to Belarus.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 1.00 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 67%

Over 2.5 Goals 41%

Over 3.5 Goals 25%

Over 4.5 Goals 12%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37%

Northern Ireland Clean Sheet 23%

Belarus Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 60%

Second Half Goal 64%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Northern Ireland	Belarus
Matches Played	30	28
Wins	12	9
Draws	5	10
Losses	13	9
Goals Scored	1.23	1.18
Goals Conceded	1.3	1.54
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 15, 2024 UEFA Nations League

Northern Ireland vs Belarus

Possession: 46% - 49% Cards: 3 - 1

2:0

Oct 12, 2024 UEFA Nations League

Belarus vs Northern Ireland

Possession: 42% - 45% Cards: 3 - 1

0:0

Jun 11, 2019 Euro

Belarus vs Northern Ireland

Possession: 52% - 53% Cards: 2 - 1

0:1

Mar 24, 2019 Euro

Northern Ireland vs Belarus

Possession: 49% - 54% Cards: 2 - 3

2:1

May 27, 2016 Friendly International

Northern Ireland vs Belarus

Possession: 50% - 60% Cards: 2 - 4

3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Northern Ireland Compare

Top Goalscorer Ballard D.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Belarus Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Northern Ireland 43 / 100

Belarus 32 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Northern Ireland Belarus

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Northern Ireland or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23%

2.86

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +17.3%

2.86

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Northern Ireland attacking → ← attacking Belarus

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Northern Ireland scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Belarus let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Northern Ireland went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Belarus lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 37

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sweden	6	5	1	0	19:4	16
2	Slovakia	6	4	1	1	10:5	13
3	Estonia	6	1	1	4	3:9	4
4	Azerbaijan	6	0	1	5	3:17	1

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Romania	6	6	0	18:3	18
2	Kosovo	6	4	2	10:7	12
3	Cyprus	6	2	4	4:15	6
4	Lithuania	6	0	6	4:11	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Northern Ireland	6	3	2	1	11:3	11
2	Bulgaria	6	2	3	1	3:6	9
3	Belarus	6	1	4	1	3:4	7
4	Luxembourg	6	0	3	3	3:7	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	North Macedonia	6	5	1	0	10:1	16
2	Armenia	6	2	1	3	8:9	7
3	Faroe Islands	6	1	3	2	5:6	6
4	Latvia	6	1	1	4	4:11	4