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Norway U21 vs Finland U21 Prediction & H2H Stats

Europe Europe

Euro U21 2025 Lyse Arena, Stavanger
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Egeli S. W. In: Broholm M.
Out: Egeli S. W.
50'
Skytta N.
50'
Hjelde L. F.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Norway U21 advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Norway U21
15%
Draws
58%
Finland U21
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Finland U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Norway U21 come out ahead of Finland U21 on wins alone.
  • Finland U21 are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Norway U21 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Norway U21, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Norway U21 Clean Sheet 10%
Finland U21 Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Norway U21 Finland U21
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 18 17
Draws 3 5
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 2.24 2.28
Goals Conceded 1.17 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 8, 2026 Friendly International
Norway U21 vs Finland U21
0:2
Nov 19, 2024 Euro U21
Norway U21 vs Finland U21
2:1
Nov 15, 2024 Euro U21
Finland U21 vs Norway U21
5:1
Jun 10, 2022 Euro U21
Finland U21 vs Norway U21
0:2
Nov 12, 2021 Euro U21
Norway U21 vs Finland U21
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Norway U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Mvuka Mugisha J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Broholm M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Finland U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Terho C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Norway U21 14 / 100
Finland U21 66 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Norway U21 Finland U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Finland U21 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Norway U21 found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Norway U21 went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Finland U21's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Norway U21 VS Finland U21
1.63 Goals Scored 3
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Norway U21

(Home)
29 Sept
Norway U21
6 : 1
Bosnia & Herzegovina U21
25 Sept
Netherlands U21
0 : 0
Norway U21
08 Jun
Norway U21
0 : 2
Finland U21
31 Mar
Slovenia U21
2 : 0
Norway U21
27 Mar
Norway U21
3 : 2
Netherlands U21
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Finland U21

(Away)
30 Sept
Romania U21
0 : 2
Finland U21
25 Sept
Finland U21
2 : 1
Spain U21
08 Jun
Norway U21
0 : 2
Finland U21
04 Jun
Sweden U21
1 : 3
Finland U21
31 Mar
Finland U21
3 : 0
Cyprus U21
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Finland U21 6
Norway U21 3
Belgium U21 1
Czech Republic U21 3
Georgia U21 4
Croatia U21 3